Important: Please be aware that the following expected figures are analysts estimates based upon the data available at the time this calendar was posted. As each data point draws nearer you should expect some fluctuation in these expectations and stay as up to date as you possibly can as to any renewed expectations immediately prior to the release of a data point.
The WEEK AHEAD Forex Trading calendar:
All day – Eurogroup meetings: these meetings will be attended by a host of Eurozone notables, including Juncker, Draghi and finance ministers. We could see comment on Brexit, Italian banks and the generally parlous state of the eurozone economy.
Tentative – GBP Inflation Report hearings: During these hearings the BOE Governor and several MPC members testify on inflation and the economic outlook before Parliament’s Treasury Committee. The hearings are a few hours in length and can create market volatility for the duration. Especially noted are the direct comments made about the currency markets.
1.30am – Australian Westpac consumer confidence (July): expected to fall to 101.2 from 102.1 in the previous month.
3am – China trade balance (June): expected to see a narrowing of the surplus to $46.6 billion from $49.9 billion a month earlier.
3pm – Bank of Canada rate decision: rates are expected to be left at 0.5%, although commentary on the outlook for Canada in the post-Brexit world should prove interesting.
3.30pm – EIA crude inventories: expected to fall by 500,000 barrels.
7pm – Fed Beige Book: the Fed’s informal survey of the US economy will help gauge business confidence and strength.
2.30am – Australia NAB business confidence, employment data (June): confidence is expected to improve, with the index rising to 4 from 3, while the unemployment rate rises to 5.8& from 5.7%, and the number of jobs created remains at 17,900, in line with May’s data.
12pm – Bank of England rate decision, statement and meeting minutes: markets should brace themselves for a potentially major event, arguably the first time that BoE meetings have been interesting since the height of the crisis. A cut in interest rates is possible, perhaps by 25 basis points, while more QE might be introduced. Governor Carney has already laid out his view of the situation and it would be no surprise to see the Monetary Policy Committee follow along, as the bank looks to cushion the impact of the UK’s vote to leave the EU.
1.30pm – US initial jobless claims: expected to be 260K, up from 254K a week earlier.
3am – China GDP (Q2), industrial production, retail sales (June): growth is forecast to rise to 1.2% QoQ and fall to 6.6% YoY, while industrial production drops to 5.9% from 6% and retail sales rise to 10.1% from 10%.
10am – eurozone trade balance (May), CPI (June, final): the trade balance is forecast to be in surplus by €18.9 billion, down on the €27.5 billion in April, while inflation is expected to be adjusted to 0.2% MoM and 0.1% YoYo, from 0.4% and -0.1% respectively, while core inflation is revised to 0.9% from 0.8%.
1.30pm – US CPI, retail sales (June): price growth is expected to hold at 1% YoY and rise to 0.3% from 0.2% MoM, while core inflation grows by 2.2%, in line with May’s figure on a YoY basis. Retial sales are forecast to see growth of 0.3% MoM, down from 0.5% in May.
3pm – US Michigan consumer sentiment index (July, preliminary): confidence is expected to hold steady, with the index at 93.5 for its first July reading, in line with the last figure for June.