Important: Please be aware that the following expected figures are analysts estimates based upon the data available at the time this calendar was posted. As each data point draws nearer you should expect some fluctuation in these expectations and stay as up to date as you possibly can as to any renewed expectations immediately prior to the release of a data point.
The WEEK AHEAD Forex Trading calendar:
03.45am – China Caixin manufacturing PMI (July): Analysts expect the figure to come in virtually unchanged at 48.8, compared with 48.6 in June.
09.30am – UK Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI (July, final): The final figure is expected to remain unrevised from the preliminary figure of 49.1. That was the first indication that the Brexit vote is going to lead to economic deterioration, being firmly in contraction territory and the worst reading since March 2009.
15.00pm – US ISM manufacturing PMI (July): Expected to come in virtually unchanged at 53.0 compared with 53.2 in June.
05.30am – Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision: Will it cut, won’t it cut? The chance of a further cut in the cash rate target to 1.5% from 1.75% appears a touch higher after second-quarter inflation hit a 17-year low of just 1.0% on the year. There’s certainly no certainty – underlying inflation rose 0.5% on the quarter and 1.7% on the year.
09.30am – UK Markit/CIPS construction PMI (July): The figure dropped to 46 in June, from 51.2 in May, marking the first contraction since the start of 2013 and Brexit fears took hold. Economists expect an even worse figure for July at 45.2
09.30am – UK Markit/CIPS services PMI (July, final): The preliminary services PMI reading also slipped into contraction territory following the Brexit vote. The final reading is expected to remain unchanged at 47.4, compared with 52.3 in June.
12.00pm – Bank of England interest rate decision: The central bank held fire in July in the immediate aftermath of the Brexit vote, but has said it will need to ease monetary policy because it expects economic fallout from the vote. So will it cut interest rates from the 0.5% level held since 2009? Or does it bring back Quantitative Easing and/or expand its Funding for Lending scheme? There’s no indication the UK is heading for recession yet, but all the recent surveys suggest a downturn is coming.
15.00pm – US factory orders (June): The decline in factory orders is expected to accelerate to 1.2%, from the 1.0% contraction recorded in May.
13.30pm – US non-farm payrolls (July): June heralded a market turnaround from May’s shock figures as 287,000 jobs were added compared with just 38,000. So was May a blip in the growth road? Economists expect the addition of 175,000 jobs in July. The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.9% and average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.2%, from 0.1% in June.
Source: Joshua Mahony – IG Index