Analysis written BY retail traders FOR retail traders
Important: Please be aware that the following expected figures are analysts estimates based upon the data available at the time this calendar was posted. As each data point draws nearer you should expect some fluctuation in these expectations and stay as up to date as you possibly can as to any renewed expectations immediately prior to the release of a data point.
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WEEK 05 AHEAD Economic calendar: Mon 30th Jan to Fri 3rd Feb 2017
Monday 30th Jan
10am – eurozone business confidence (January): expected to hold at 0.8.
1pm – German CPI (January, preliminary): forecast to hold at 1.7% YoY.
1.30pm – US personal consumption index (December): core PCE index expected to rise to 0.2% from 0% MoM.
3pm – US pending home sales (December): YoY figure forecast to rise to -0.3% from -0.4% a month earlier.
11.30pm – Japan unemployment rate (December): expected to hold at 3.1% YoY.
Tuesday 31st Jan
12.30am – Australia NAB business confidence (December): expected to fall to 4.9 from 5.
3am – Bank of Japan decision: no change expected, but commentary on potential future changes could lead to volatility.
8.55am – German unemployment (January): rate expected to hold at 6%, while the number of unemployed falls by 5000 to 11,000.
10am – eurozone inflation (January), unemployment rate (December), GDP (Q4, flash): inflation expected to rise to 1.2% from 1.1% YoY, and core inflation to hold at 0.9%. Unemployment forecast to fall to 9.7% from 9.8%, and GDP to be 0.3% QoQ and 1.6% YoY (from 0.3% and 1.7% respectively).
2.45pm – Chicago PMI (January): index forecast to rise to 54.8 from 54.6.
3pm – US consumer confidence (January): expected to hold at 113.
Wednesday 1st Feb
1am – China manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI (January): manufacturing expected to fall to 51.2 from 51.4, while services PMI expected to edge lower, to 54.4 from 54.5.
9.30am – UK manufacturing PMI (January): expected to fall to 55.43 from 56.1.
1.15pm – ADP employment report (January): 168K jobs expected to have been created, from 153K a month earlier.
3pm – US ISM manufacturing PMI (January): expected to rise to 54.4 from 54.3.
3.30pm – US EIA crude inventories (w/e 27 January): expected to see a 520,000 barrel drop in stockpiles, from a 2.84 million barrel rise a week earlier.
7pm – FOMC rate decision: no change is expected on interest rates, but the accompanying statement could provide further clues about whether the FOMC is still sticking with its plan to raise rates three times this year.
Thursday 2nd Feb
12.30am – Australia trade balance (December): previous reading was a surplus of A$1.24 billion.
5am – Japan consumer confidence (January): expected to fall to 40.3 from 43.1.
9.30am – UK construction PMI (January): forecast to rise to 54.6 from 54.2
12pm – BoE interest rate decision and Inflation Report: no change expected on policy, but the minutes and Inflation Report will drive sterling volatility.
1.30pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 28 January): expected to fall to 247K from 259K.
Friday 3rd Feb
1.45am – China Caixin manufacturing PMI (January): private sector survey forecast to rise to 52 from 51.9.
9.30am – UK services PMI (January): expected to fall to 56.1 from 56.2, having hit its highest level since August 2015.
10am – eurozone retail sales (December): forecast to rise 1.9% YoY and 0.1% MoM, from 2.3% and -0.4% respectively.
1.30pm – US non-farm payrolls and employment data (January): 168K jobs expected to have been created, from 156K a month earlier, while unemployment holds at 4.7%. Average hourly earnings expected to rise 0.2%, after a 0.4% increase in December.
3pm – US ISM non-manufacturing PMI (January): activity index forecast to fall to 57 from 57.2.
Source: Clifton FX
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