WEEK 15 Forex Traders Calendar:
Mon 10th to Fri 14th April 2017
I think it was Edwin Starr who said, “War, what is it good for, absolutely nothing!”. Well he was wrong, war is good for something, essentially gold prices and the Japanese yen. Courtesy of Pres Trump flexing his military muscle against Syria last week we saw a move to risk aversion and strengthening gold and yen prices, and it was a perfect example of a switch from a risk on to a risk off sentiment. The USD strengthened towards the end of the week undoing most of that flight to fear, but with significant uncertainty about what happens next, and the continuing antagonistic escalations between Russia and the US, we could see some volatility ahead, particularly swinging between risk on and risk off.
Monday 10th April
9:10 p.m. | USD | Fed Chair Yellen Speaks
Speaking at the University of Michigan the markets will be looking for any indication of a possible June interest rate hike. Questions and answer sessions are planned and we could see volatility.
Tuesday 11th April
9:30 a.m. | GBP | CPI data release
Prior: 2.3% | Expected: 2.2%
With inflation already ahead of the Bank of England 2% target this will be a key data release. If it beats expectations we could start to see discussions around interest rate rises.
9:30 a.m. | GBP | PPI data release
Prior: 7.8% | Expected: 7.4%
This is often considered a leading indicator for inflation as it is the raw materials paid by producers to produce goods, and therefore has an impact on consumer prices and subsequently inflation. Recent releases have been strong.
Wednesday 12th April
2:30 a.m. | CNY | CPI data release
Prior: 0.8% | Expected: 1.1%
China, as the world’s 2nd largest economy, has a material impact on global economic health. While unlikely to be a market mover in its own right it will set the tone for other currencies, and in particular, the Antipodean nations.
9:30 a.m. | GBP | Average Earnings
Prior: 2.2% | Expected: 2.1%
Another important release for the UK, and something that again has a direct impact on inflation. If wages increase, spending increases which raises prices and therefore inflation.
3 p.m. | CAD | Interest rate decision and monetary policy statement
Prior: 0.5% | Expected: 0.5%
No change to interest rates are expected but with recent positive news coming from the Bank of Canada all eyes will be on the statement to look for signs of forward guidance.
Thursday 13th April
1:30 p.m. | CAD | Manufacturing Sales
Prior: 0.6% | Expected: -0.4%
Significant slowdown expected but could we see another upbeat release from Canada?
1:30 p.m. | USD | PPI
Prior: 0.3% | Expected: 0%
This is the Feds preferred method of monitoring inflation as it is the increase in costs to producers that drives costs to consumers and therefore inflation.
3 p.m. | USD | University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Preliminary)
Prior: 96.9 | Expected: 97.1
A very important release for the US and is watched by a large number of US organisations to gauge sentiment. Historically this has been correlated to GDP figures, often being used as a leading indicator of economic production.
Friday 14th April
1:30 p.m. | USD | CPI data release
Prior: 0.1% | Expected: 0%
Fed will be looking for signs of ongoing inflationary pressures.
1:30 p.m. | USD | Core CPI data release
Prior: 0.2% | Expected: 0.2%
The Fed tend to watch this more than CPI as it excludes some less stable energy and food costs.
Source: Content written by Andi Thornton, TradingHUB Chief Analyst – www.TradingHUB.co.uk