Monday 1st May
3 p.m. | USD | ISM Manufacturing PMI – Prior: 57.2 | Expected 56.6
Last month reported a slight slowdown, and since regional PMI readings have suggested further slowdowns in April. If we see another significant slowdown it will increase concerns around economic outlook. Looking at more detailed data the employment element of the report will be indicative for non-farm payrolls later in the week.
Tuesday 2nd May
2:45 a.m. | CNY | Caixin Manufacturing PMI – Prior: 51.2 | Expected 51.4
Not expected to be a significant market mover but it is important to watch how China is performing as the world’s second-largest economy.
5:30 a.m. | AUD | Interest Rate decision and RBA statement – Prior: 1.5% | Expected 1.5%
As ever interest rate decisions are one of the big 3 and must be watched. It is strongly expected that interest rates will be left as is but the RBA does have some difficult issues to deal with. Although Q1 inflation was slightly weaker than expected it remained within the RBA’s target and the position with the labour market has improved recently, however there are ongoing concerns around the level of household debt. It will be important to watch the statement and rhetoric around the statement to look for sentiment going forward.
9:30 a.m. | GBP | Manufacturing PMI – Prior: 54.2 | Expected 54.0
Last month we saw a slight slowdown in Manufacturing PMI results from the UK, therefore this month’s report will be important to gauge whether there is an ongoing weakening trend.
11:45 p.m. | NZD | Unemployment Rate – Prior: 5.2% | Expected 5.1%
Always an important release for any economy, the more people employed the more money consumers have to spend which in turn drives up inflation. Expectations are for a slight improvement this month which could be bullish for the NZD.
Tentative | NZD | GDT Price Index – Prior: 3.1% |
With New Zealand being one of the world’s biggest exporters of dairy products this is an important release and often creates short-term volatility. There is no forecast for this release but the greater the percentage indicates increasing prices and a negative number suggests reducing prices which have the obvious consequences to the New Zealand economy.
Wednesday 3rd May
9:30 a.m. | GBP | Construction PMI – Prior: 52.2 | Expected 52.1
Looking for another small slowdown in Construction PMI this month in the UK economy. Not anticipated to be a significant market mover but it is important to take into context with all of the other PMI is released to get an overview of sector by sector performance of the UK economy.
10 a.m. | EUR | Preliminary Flash GDP – Prior: 0.4% | Expected 0.5%
Again one of the big 3 releases, GDP being the overall output from the economy for Q1. With an improving picture across the Eurozone this will be an important figure to watch and could set sentiment for the coming few months. It also is likely to have an impact on the June ECB Policy meeting.
1:15 p.m. | USD | ADP Non-farm Employment Change – Prior: 263K | Expected 178K
Not anticipated to be a significant market mover but it is often a good precursor to the government released Non-farm Payrolls later in the week.
3 p.m. | USD | ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI – Prior: 55.2 | Expected 56.1
Last month we saw lower than expected numbers coming in at 55.2 against a predicted 57.1. We are expecting increase this month but much like others, if we see another sustained fall this could raise risks and questions around the US economy. Remember anything above 50 is expansionary.
7 p.m. | USD | Interest Rate Decision and FOMC statement – Prior: 1% | Expected 1%
With no press conference scheduled nor new economic projections it is extremely unlikely that there will be any change in interest rates. In addition, as we had an interest rate change at the previous meeting in March it would be extremely rare to have back to back changes unless data suggested it was required, which it doesn’t. The FOMC statement will be extremely important as the market will be looking for forward guidance for a potential June increase and beyond.
Thursday 4th May
9:30 a.m. | GBP | Services PMI – Prior: 55.0 | Expected 54.6
An important release for the UK as the services industry accounts for about 70% of the economy. We saw an improved position last month and expectations are for a slight slowdown this month, 54.6 is still a healthy expansionary figure.
5:30 p.m. | EUR | ECB President Speaks
Not expected to be directly linked to economic policy and therefore unlikely to be a market mover but we could see some short-term volatility depending on any references to monetary policy.
9:25 p.m. | CAD | Bank of Canada Governor speaks
This is an interesting speech as it is targeted at industrialists in Mexico. Normally I would anticipate very little reaction however with the recent trade dispute with the US and discussions about withdrawing from NAFTA we need to watch the content of this speech.
Friday 5th May
2:30 a.m. | AUD | RBA Monetary Policy Statement
This is important as it likely to set the tone for the Australian dollar over the next few weeks. While certain areas such as employment have improved there are still concerns around household debt and the housing market. We could see some rhetoric to try and jawbone the value of the currency.
4 a.m. | NZD | Inflation expectations – Prior: 1.9% | Expected —
Year-on-year inflation is now within the RBNZ target so this will be important to see what forward guidance they give around potentially increasing interest rates away from the all-time low that they currently are at.
1:30 p.m. | USD | Average Hourly Earnings – Prior: 0.2% | Expected 0.3%
Very important release to watch as the Fed look at this as a significant guide towards possible future inflation.
1:30 p.m. | USD | Non-farm Payrolls – Prior: 98K | Expected 194K
As ever the Main event for the 1st week of the month. After a significant miss last month, predominantly put down to seasonal adjustments, we are looking for a bounce back up this month. If we do not see a significant jump up this could start to have consequences for a June interest rate hike.
Source: Content written by Andi Thornton, TradingHUB Chief Analyst – www.TradingHUB.co.uk