Analysis written BY retail traders FOR retail traders
Important: Please be aware that the following expected figures are analysts estimates based upon the data available at the time this calendar was posted. As each data point draws nearer you should expect some fluctuation in these expectations and stay as up to date as you possibly can as to any renewed expectations immediately prior to the release of a data point.
Possibly a quieter week ahead this week, especially the 2nd half with Thanks Giving day on Thursday which is likely to see the US market start to fizzle out towards the end of Wednesday, although USD strength is still possibly going to be the theme. Worth remembering that with holidays come low-volume and can lead to high volatility.
Monday 21st November
4 PM ECB President Draghi Testifies – Speaking to the European Parliament he will deliver the bank’s annual report and provide testimony on economic and monetary policy. This is likely to be closely watched for clues relating to future monetary policy and QE changes.
Tentative New Zealand Retail Sales – previous 2.3%/forecast 0.8% – An important figure showing consumer confidence. After a very good reading last month expectations are for a more modest increase this time around.
Tentative New Zealand Core Retail Sales – previous 2.6%/forecast 1.1% – as above but excluding auto sales.
1:30 PM Canadian Core Retail Sales – previous 0%/forecast 0.6% – Canada is looking for some positive news showing signs of growth which it is struggling to generate at present.
1:30 PM Canadian Retail Sales – previous -0.1%/forecast 0.7% – As above.
Wednesday 23rd November
Tentative New Zealand PPI – previous 0.9%/no forecast – This is an important quarterly release which indicates inflationary pressures from the producer side of the economy.
8 AM Eurozone French Flash Manufacturing PMI – previous 51.8 (revised from 51.3)/forecast 51.5 – An important indicator of manufacturing activity in the Eurozone’s second-largest economy. Anything above 50 is considered expansionary.
8 AM Eurozone French Services Flash PMI – previous 51.4 (revised from 52.1)/forecast 52.1 – As above but from the services sector
8:30 AM Eurozone German Flash Manufacturing PMI – previous 55.0 (revised from 55.1)/forecast 54.8 – An important indicator of manufacturing activity in the Eurozone’s largest economy. Anything above 50 is considered expansionary, a print above the prior reading is considered positive as it indicates a continuation of expansion.
8:30 AM Eurozone German Services Flash PMI – previous 54.2 (revised from 54.1)/forecast 54.1 – As above but from the services sector
9 AM Eurozone Flash Manufacturing PMI – previous 53.5 (revised from 53.3)/forecast 53.2 – The short term impact of this is likely to be quite limited but could have important implications for ECB policy moving forward.
9 AM Eurozone Services Flash PMI – previous 52.8 (revised from 53.5)-forecast 53.1 – As above but from the services sector.
12:30 PM GBP Autumn Statement – The 1st statement from the Chancellor since taking office and all eyes will be on whether there will be an expansion of fiscal policy on internal infrastructure such as construction to mitigate inward investment risks due to uncertainty. There will also be heightened interest re the medium term outlook for the economy.
1:30 PM US Durable Goods Orders – previous 0.1% (revised from 0.2%)/forecast 0.2% – An interesting release as it is a good indicator of capital spending which remains important, and while is likely to have limited near-term effects, there will be a political angle to this. Weak data could increase the likelihood of fiscal spending from the new administration.
3:30 PM US Crude Oil Inventories – previous 5.3 M – An important release as it directly affects oil prices. We have seen significant increases in oil inventories over the last few weeks so another positive figure could push oil prices lower.
7 PM US FOMC meeting minutes – Often a very important event but considering the 96% chance of an interest rate rise in December coupled with the fact that the meeting was held prior to the US election, and things have changed significantly since, it is unlikely to be as volatile as usual. Markets will be watching for clues for 2017 however.
Thursday 24th November
All Day US Holiday
9 AM Eurozone German IFo Business Climate – previous 110.5/forecast 110.6 – An important indicator of business confidence in the Eurozone’s largest economy
11:30 PM Japan Tokyo Core CPI – previous -0.4%/forecast -0.4% – Can Japan follow its upbeat GDP release with more good news?
Friday 25th November
9:30 AM GBP 2nd Estimate of GDP – previous 0.5%/forecast 0.5% – Not a significant market mover but important to note.
Source: Clifton FX
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