Analysis written BY retail traders FOR retail traders
Minimal data for the USD this week for a change so focus switches to other currencies, most notably the Euro with significant political events happening in Austria and Italy this weekend. Most pressing is the Italian constitutional reform elections which should the government lose the current Prime Minister has threatened to resign which would throw Italy into political chaos, provide uncertainty and fear throughout the banking sector which ultimately will have an impact on the Euro. The referendum takes place on Sunday and therefore be prepared for volatility at market opening and throughout Monday.
Important: Please be aware that the following expected figures are analysts estimates based upon the data available at the time this calendar was posted. As each data point draws nearer you should expect some fluctuation in these expectations and stay as up to date as you possibly can as to any renewed expectations immediately prior to the release of a data point.
Monday 5th December
1:45 AM China Caixin Services PMI – previous 52.4/forecast 52.7 – Unlikely to be a significant market mover but it is an important indicator of economic health in China, a market that is watched carefully by the rest of the globe. Most notably has an impact on Australia and New Zealand as their closest trading partners.
9:30 AM UK Services PMI – previous 54.5/forecast 54.2 – Still looking for an expansionary number here (above 50) albeit slightly slower than last month. It’s an important indicator of economic health in the UK as the service industry is the largest.
3 PM US ISM non-manufacturing PMI – previous 54.8/forecast 55.3 – An important indicator of health in the dominant US services sector. Impact is likely to be lessened due to the employment report last week but still an important indicator of trends in confidence.
7:05 PM US FOMC Bullard speaks – Will be a crucial watch to see if there are any indications of the pace of any interest rate increases next year and in particular any responses to last week’s slightly disappointing employment report.
Tuesday 6th December
3:30 AM Australia Interest rate decision and RBA statement – There are not expected to be any significant changes in monetary policy and no further interest rate cut from the historical low of 1.5%. Australia is one of the better performing economies globally at present but it will be important to watch for signs of future monetary policy guidance.
7 AM Eurozone German Factory Orders – previous -0.6%/forecast 0.6% – Looking for a rebound on disappointing figures from last month and further evidence that the Eurozone economy is beginning to stabilise.
Tentative New Zealand GDT Price Index – The RBNZ has commented that recent price increases have helped New Zealand stabilise their financial system therefore they will be looking for another price increase.
Wednesday 7th December
12:30 AM Australia GDP – previous 0.5%/forecast 0.2% – An important release showing overall growth in the Australian economy. As one of the better performing global economies we could see this figure beating expectations. This could be a volatile release.
9:30 AM UK Manufacturing Production – previous 0.5%/forecast 0.2% – A good indicator of manufacturing production in the UK which has been surprisingly strong since the referendum.
3 PM Canada Interest Rate decision – Expectations are that the central bank will leave rates on hold however the policy statement will be important in terms of economic outlook.
3:30 PM US Crude Oil Inventories – previous -0.9 M – An important figure as it directly impacts oil prices. Oil prices are fairly bullish at present courtesy of the recent OPEC accord.
Thursday 8th December
Tentative China Trade Balance – previous 325B/forecast 307B – This has a significant impact on global outlook and not just Chinese internal economic position. Over performance provides much more positive global outlook and vice versa.
12:45 PM Eurozone Interest Rate decision – While no change to interest rates are anticipated the following press conference will be important in terms of providing any level of forward guidance and changes to the current QE arrangements. Recently the ECB have been quite positive about the state of the Eurozone economy so it remains to be seen whether they will extend the current level of bond buying beyond March 2017. This could be a significantly volatile release.
Friday 9th December
1:30 AM China CPI – previous 2.1%/forecast 2.2% – An important indicator of inflationary pressure in the world’s largest economy.
3 PM USD Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment – previous 93.8/forecast 94.3 – This will be an interesting release considering the recent US elections, could they have had any significant impact on sentiment?
Source: Clifton FX
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