Week commencing 21st January : BST
Overview
The UK is firmly in the spotlight, as markets wait to see what the government’s way forward is from last week’s defeat of the Withdrawal Agreement.
Other key data to watch will be: UK employment figures, flash purchasing managers indices (PMIs) from the eurozone and the US and the European Central Bank (ECB) rate decision.
Note:
The following figures reflect the expectations of the market as of Sunday. You should obtain up-to-date expectations for each event as it draws nearer.
I strongly recommend using the Talking-Forex service to stay abreast of all market expectations and data outcomes.
Monday
Martin Luther King Day in US
UK Prime Minister Theresa May must outline new Brexit plan today
2am – China GDP (Q4): growth forecast to be 6.4% YoY and 1.5% QoQ, from 6.5% and 1.6% respectively. Markets to watch: China indices, CNH crosses
7am – German GfK consumer confidence (February): forecast to fall to 10.3 from 10.4. Market to watch: EUR crosses
Tuesday
9.30am – UK employment data: December claimant count to rise by 10,000, from 21,900 a month earlier, while the November unemployment rate to hold at 4.1%, and average earnings for November to rise by 3% (inc bonus) from 3.3% a month earlier. Market to watch: GBP crosses
10am – German ZEW index (January): economic sentiment index to fall to -21 from -17.5. Market to watch: EUR crosses
3pm – US existing home sales (December): expected to fall 0.8% MoM from a 1.9% gain in November. Market to watch: USD crosses
11.50pm – Japan trade balance (December): forecast to see the deficit narrow to Y600 billion from Y737 billion. Market to watch: JPY crosses
Wednesday
3am – Bank of Japan rate decision: no change in policy expected. Market to watch: JPY crosses
3pm – eurozone consumer confidence (January, flash reading): expected to rise to -4.3 from -6.2. Market to watch: EUR crosses
Thursday
8.30am – German mfg & services PMI (January, flash): mfg PMI to rise to 51.9 from 51.5, while services to rise to 53.4 from 51.8. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses
12.45pm – ECB rate decision (1.30pm press conference): no change in policy expected, but given the weakness in eurozone data of late, investors should watch out for the views of the bank on growth and inflation. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses
2.45pm – US mfg & services PMI (January, flash): mfg PMI to fall to 53.4 from 53.8, and services to fall to 54.2 from 54.4. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
4pm – US EIA crude inventories (w/e 18 January): stockpiles rose by 7.5 million barrels in the previous week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
Friday
9am – German Ifo business climate index (January): expected to rise to 101.5, from 101. Market to watch: EUR crosses
Source: Chris Beauchamp, Market Analyst
