Week commencing 13th July 2020 : (All Times GMT / BST)
Overview:
On the economic front, we have a host of UK data, including CPI and employment data, plus an ECB rate decision, a Bank of Canada rate decision and GDP data from China.
Note:
The following figures reflect the expectations of the market as of Sunday. You should obtain up-to-date expectations for each event as it draws nearer.
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Monday
No scheduled tier 1 data expected.
Tuesday
4am – China trade figures (June): exports to rise 1.4% YoY and imports to drop 12% YoY. Markets to watch: CNH crosses
7am – UK trade balance (May), GDP (3-month average to May): May trade surplus to rise to £4.6 billion, GDP to fall 17%. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
10am – German ZEW (July): economic sentiment index to fall to 62.5. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
1.30pm – US CPI (June): prices to rise 0.3% YoY and 0.4% MoM, and core CPI to be 1.2% YoY and 0.1% MoM. Markets to watch: USD crosses
Wednesday
4am – BoJ rate decision: no change expected. Markets to watch: JPY crosses
7am – UK CPI (June): prices to rise 0.4% YoY and 0.2% MoM. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
1.30pm – US Empire State mfg index (July): index to rise to 1.5 from -0.2. Markets to watch: USD crosses
3pm – Bank of Canada rate decision: no change in policy expected. Markets to watch: CAD crosses
3.30pm – US EIA crude inventories (w/e 10 July): stockpiles rose by 5.6 million barrels in the preceding week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
Thursday
2.30am – Australia employment data (June): unemployment rate to rise to 7.5%. Markets to watch: AUD crosses
3am – China GDP (Q2): growth to be 1% YoY and 3.2% QoQ, from -6.8% and -9.8% respectively. Markets to watch: China indices, CNH crosses
7am – UK employment data: June claimant count to fall by 140,000, but 160,000 jobs expected to have been lost in April. May unemployment rate to rise to 4.9% from 3.9%, while average earnings (excl bonus) rise 1.9%. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
12.45pm – ECB rate decision: no change in rates expected. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses
1.30pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 11 July), retail sales (June), Philadelphia Fed index (July): claims to rise to 1.32 million from 1.31 million, retail sales to rise 4.2% MoM, Philly Fed index to fall to 17 from 27.5. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
Friday
10am – eurozone CPI (June, final): prices to rise 0.3% YoY. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
1.30pm – US housing starts & building permits (June): starts to rise 12.9% MoM and permits to rise 2.5% MoM. Markets to watch: USD crosses
3pm – US Michigan consumer confidence (July, preliminary): confidence index to rise to 80 from 78.1. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
Source: Chris Beauchamp, Market Analyst
