Week 32 commencing 5th August 2018 : BST
Overview
Markets have firmly settled into their summer lull, and this week’s crop of news reflects this.
For sterling watchers at least we have the trio of reports consisting of employment data, consumer price index (CPI) and retail sales, which will be interesting given the ongoing decline in GBP/USD.
Note:
The following figures reflect the expectations of the market as of Sunday. You should obtain up-to-date expectations for each event as it draws nearer.
I strongly recommend using the Talking-Forex service to stay abreast of all market expectations and data outcomes.
Monday
No Scheduled Tier 1 data due
Tuesday
3am – China retail sales (July): expected to rise 9% YoY. Markets to watch: China indices, CNH crosses
7am – German GDP (Q2, flash): forecast to be 0.4% QoQ and 2.6% YoY from 0.3% and 2.3% respectively. Market to watch: EUR crosses
9.30am – UK employment data: July claimant count to fall by 7800, while the May unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.3% from 4.2%, and average earnings for June (inc bonus) are forecast to be 2.7% higher. Market to watch: GBP crosses
10am – Eurozone GDP (Q2, 2nd estimate): growth expected to be 0.3% QoQ and 2.1% YoY. Market to watch: EUR crosses
10am – German ZEW (August): economic sentiment index expected to fall to -17.7. Market to watch: EUR crosses
Wednesday
9.30am – UK CPI (July): expected to be 0.2% MoM and 2.6% YoY, from 0% and 2.4% respectively. YoY core CPI to be 2.2% from 1.9%. Market to watch: GBP crosses
1.30pm – US retail sales (July): forecast to grow 0.3% MoM from 0.5%. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
3.30pm – US EIA crude inventories (w/e 10 August): forecast to see stockpiles rise by 750,000 barrels, from a 1.35 million barrel drop a week earlier. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
Thursday
12.50am – Japan trade balance (July): expected to see surplus narrow to Y534 billion from Y721 billion. Market to watch: JPY crosses
9.30am – UK retail sales (July): expected to fall 0.3% MoM and rise 2.9% YoY, from -0.5% and 2.9% respectively. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
1.30pm – US housing starts & building permits (July), Philadelphia Fed Index (August), initial jobless claims (w/e 11 August): permits to rise 1% MoM and starts to be 5% higher MoM. Philadelphia index to fall to 22 from 25.7. Claims to rise to 217K from 213K. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
Friday
10am – eurozone CPI (July): prices to grow 0.1% MoM and 2.1% YoY, and core CPI to be 1% MoM from 0.9%. Market to watch: EUR crosses
1.30pm – Canadian CPI (July): expected to be 0.1% MoM and 2.4% YoY, from 0.1% and 2.5% respectively. Market to watch: CAD crosses
3pm – US Michigan confidence index (August): sentiment forecast to fall to 96 from 97.9. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
Source: Chris Beauchamp, Market Analyst
