Week commencing 16th September : BST
Overview:
Hot on the heels of the ECB’s return to QE, we have meetings from the Fed, BoE and BoJ. Only the first (FED) of these is expected to be of much importance, since the bank is expected to cut rates again, but all three will be watched for dovish commentary.
Key data this week includes the German ZEW figure, UK CPI and eurozone consumer confidence.
Note:
The following figures reflect the expectations of the market as of Sunday. You should obtain up-to-date expectations for each event as it draws nearer.
I strongly recommend using the Talking-Forex service to stay abreast of all market expectations and data outcomes.
Monday
3am – China retail sales & industrial production (August): production to rise 5.2% YoY and sales to rise 7.9% YoY. Markets to watch: China indices, CNH crosses
1.30pm – US NY Empire State mfg index (September): forecast to fall to 4.6 from 4.8. Markets to watch: USD crosses
Tuesday
10am – German ZEW (September): economic sentiment to rise to -38 from -44.1. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
Wednesday
12.50am – Japan trade balance (August): exports to fall 2.2% YoY. Markets to watch: Yen crosses
9.30am – UK CPI (August): headline CPI to rise 1.9% YoY from 2.1%, and 0.6% MoM from 0%, while core CPI rises 0.5% MoM and 1.6% YoY from 0.1% and 1.9% respectively. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
1.30pm – US housing starts & building permits (August): permits to fall 3% MoM and starts to rise 5.1% MoM. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
1.30pm – Canada CPI (August): CPI to rise 1.7% YoY and 0.2% MoM. Markets to watch: CAD crosses
3.30pm – US EIA crude inventories (w/e 13 September): stockpiles fell by 6.9 million barrels a week earlier. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
7pm – FOMC decision: a rate cut is viewed as a certainty according to market pricing. However, the bigger question is how much of a cut, and what commentary will go with it. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
Thursday
4am – BoJ rate decision: no change expected, but with other banks turning dovish the BoJ may issue some pertinent commentary. Markets to watch: Nikkei, Yen crosses
9.30am – UK retail sales (August): sales to fall 0.2% MoM. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
12pm – BoE decision: no change in policy expected, but the bank’s views on Brexit will be interesting to see. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
1.30pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 14 September), Philadelphia Fed index (September): claims to rise to 209K, and Philly Fed index to fall to 12 from 16.8. Markets to watch: USD crosses
3pm – US existing home sales (August): forecast to fall 0.8% MoM. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
Friday
12.30am – Japan CPI (August): forecast to be 0.5% YoY. Markets to watch: Yen crosses
3pm – US consumer confidence (September, flash): expected to fall to -8. Markets to watch: USD crosses
Source: Chris Beauchamp, Market Analyst
