Week commencing 18th March : BST
Overview
UK data and a possible EU agreement to extend Brexit dominate the week, along with a Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting and a rate decision from the Bank of England (BoE).
Note:
The following figures reflect the expectations of the market as of Sunday. You should obtain up-to-date expectations for each event as it draws nearer.
I strongly recommend using the Talking-Forex service to stay abreast of all market expectations and data outcomes.
Monday
None
Tuesday
UK Parliament to vote again on PM’s Brexit deal: despite losing twice, the PM will try to get her deal through for a third time, in order to avoid a longer extension to Brexit. At present, the deal is still unlikely to pass. Markets to watch: FTSE 100/250, GBP crosses
12.30am – RBA meeting minutes: these will examine the decisions taken at the latest meeting. Markets to watch: AUD crosses
9.30am – UK employment data: 150K jobs expected to have been created in December, while the January unemployment rate holds at 4%. Average hourly earnings to rise 3.5% in January. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
10am – German ZEW index (March): economic sentiment to fall to -14 from -13.4. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
11.50pm – BoJ meeting minutes: Markets to watch: JPY crosses
Wednesday
9.30am – UK CPI (February): inflation fall 0.7% MoM and rise 1.9% YoY, while core CPI to rise 0.6% MoM and 1.9% YoY. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
2.30pm – US EIA crude inventories (w/e 15 March): previous week saw a fall in stockpiles of 3.9 million barrels. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
6pm – FOMC meeting: no change in policy expected, but the current outlook will be worth noting. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
Thursday
European Council Meeting – European leaders to vote on extension of Article 50
12.30am – Australia employment data (February): unemployment rate to remain at 5%, while the number of workers rises by 15K. Markets to watch: AUD crosses
9.30am – UK retail sales (February): sales to rise 0.2% MoM and 3.4% YoY. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
12pm – BoE meeting: policy expected to be left unchanged, but Brexit likely to dominate the discussion. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
12.30pm – US Philadelphia Fed index (March): expected to rise to 3.2 from -4.1. Markets to watch: USD crosses
3pm – eurozone consumer confidence (March): confidence to fall to -10.8 from -7.4. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
11.30pm – Japan CPI (February): CPI to be 0.4% YoY and core CPI to hold at0 .8% YoY. Markets to watch: JPY crosses
Friday
12.30am – Japan mfg PMI (March, flash): expected to rise to 52 from 48.9. Markets to watch: JPY crosses
8.15am – 9am – French, German, eurozone mfg & services PMI (March, flash): overall, activity in services is expected to weaken again but German manufacturing expected to improve. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses
12.30pm – Canada CPI (February): inflation to rise 0.2% MoM and 1.5% YoY, and core CPI to hold at 1.5% YoY. Markets to watch: CAD crosses
1.45pm – US mfg & services PMI (March, flash): service PMI to fall to 54.3 and manufacturing to rise to 54.7. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
2pm – US existing home sales (February): sales fell 1.2% MoM. Markets to watch: USD crosses
Source: Chris Beauchamp, Market Analyst
