Week commencing 24 September : BST
Overview
September’s Federal Reserve (Fed) decision is upon us and while the rate increase is all but assured, the key points for markets will be in what policymakers expect for the future (the fabled ‘dot plot’) and their assessment of the US economy. Crucially, as trade wars rumble on, the Fed may look to comment on how this is affecting the US. Also worth watching out for are the monthly durable goods orders.
Note:
The following figures reflect the expectations of the market as of Sunday. You should obtain up-to-date expectations for each event as it draws nearer.
I strongly recommend using the Talking-Forex service to stay abreast of all market expectations and data outcomes.
Monday
9am – German IFO index (September): business climate index to rise to 104 from 103.8. Market to watch: EUR crosses
1.30pm – US Chicago Fed index (August): index expected to rise to 0.2 from 0.13. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
Tuesday
12.50am – BoJ meeting minutes: these will reveal the discussion behind the latest decision. Market to watch: JPY crosses
3pm – US Conference Board consumer confidence (September): expected to fall to 131.3 from 133.4. Market to watch: USD crosses
Wednesday
3pm – US new home sales (August): expected to rise 2.2% MoM. Market to watch: US crosses
3.30pm – US EIA crude inventories (w/c 21 September): stockpiles forecast to fall by 480,000 barrels from a 2 million barrel drop a week earlier. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
7pm – FOMC decision (7.30pm press conference): the central bank is expected to raise rates to 2.25% from 2%, but this is all but a foregone conclusion, so the market impact will be in their projections for future rate rises, their assessment of the US economy and the impact (if any) from the US-China trade conflict. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
Thursday
7am – German GfK consumer confidence (October): index to rise to 10.6 from 10.5. . Market to watch: EUR crosses
10am – Eurozone business confidence (September): forecast to drop to 1.15 from 1.22. . Market to watch: EUR crosses
1pm – German CPI (September, preliminary): forecast to fall to 1.9% YoY from 2%. Market to watch: EUR crosses
1.30pm – US GDP (Q2, final reading), durable goods order (August), Personal consumption expenditure prices (Q2, final): GDP to rise 4.2% QoQ, durable goods orders to rise 1.7% from -1.7% MoM, and increase 0.5% from 0.2% MoM excluding transportation orders. PCE prices to rise 2.6% QoQ from 2.5%, and core PCE prices to increase by 2% from 2.2% MoM. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
3pm – US pending home sales (August): forecast to fall 1.9% YoY from a 2.3% drop in July. Market to watch: USD crosses
Friday
12.30am – Japan unemployment (August): jobless rate to fall to 2.4% from 2.5%. Market to watch: JPY crosses
2.45am – China Caixin mfg PMI (September): forecast to hold at 50.6. Markets to watch: China indices, CNH crosses
8.55am – German unemployment (September): unemployment rate to hold at 5.2%. Market to watch: EUR crosses
9.30am – UK GDP (Q2, final): forecast to be 1.3% YoY and 0.4% QoQ. Market to watch: GBP crosses
10am – Eurozone CPI (September): forecast to be 2.1% YoY from 2%, and core CPI to be 1.2% from 1%. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses
1.30pm – US personal income & spending (August): income to rise 0.4% MoM from 0.3% and 0.4% from 0.4% for spending. Market to watch: USD crosses
2.45pm – US Chicago PMI (September): index to rise to 63.8 from 63.6. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
3pm – US Michigan consumer sentiment (September, final): index to hold at 96.2. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
Source: Chris Beauchamp, Market Analyst
