Charles Clifton's News Aggregator

RSS 2018-06-05T16:46:37+00:00

Essential Reading | Quality Sourced

Bloomberg | The Economist | Wall Street Journal | NASDAQ | FinanceFeeds | Daily FX

  • Dow Jones Approaching Key Support: Can Buyers Hold the Lows?
    by James Stanley, Currency Strategist on 19th June 2018 at 2:09 pm

    Global stocks have been offered-lower since last week's FOMC and ECB rate decisions, and the Dow Jones is now approaching a key zone of support. Will buyers be able to hold the lows to provoke another move of bullish continuation? […]

  • Can't Anyone Here Cook Anymore?
    on 19th June 2018 at 1:37 pm

    Delivery apps like Grubhub, meal kits and takeout are a rising threat to supermarkets like Kroger and Walmart and packaged food companies like Kraft Heinz […]

  • US Dollar Drives to 11-Month Highs as Stocks Continue to Sell-Off
    by James Stanley, Currency Strategist on 19th June 2018 at 1:30 pm

    Risk aversion has continued to show and global stocks have put in a bearish move of continuation after last week's FOMC/ECB fueled reversals. This has helped to push the US Dollar to fresh 11-month highs, and the door may be open for more. […]

  • US AM Digest: Global Markets Tumble on Escalating Trade Tensions
    by Justin McQueen, Analyst on 19th June 2018 at 1:29 pm

    Chinese markets plunged near 4% after reports that the Trump administration were looking at fresh tariffs on Chinese exports valued at $200bln. […]

  • The Other Yield Curve Investors Should Watch as Trouble Mounts
    on 19th June 2018 at 1:26 pm

    Escalating trade tensions have helped push the U.S. Treasury yield curve to its flattest in more than a decade. But another curve deserves attention—and it is getting steeper. […]

  • US housing starts for May 1350K vs. 1311K expected. Building permits 1301K vs. 1350K expected
    by Greg Michalowski on 19th June 2018 at 12:30 pm

    US housing starts and building permits for May 2018. The data for US housing starts and building permits shows: The housing starts are new 11 year highs.&nbs […]

  • PBOC Gov. says investors should stay calm
    by Greg Michalowski on 19th June 2018 at 12:25 pm

    Shanghai composite index shed 3.78%  He adds: […]

  • DXY Index Hits Yearly High as China-US Trade Tensions Rise
    by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Sr. Currency Strategist on 19th June 2018 at 12:05 pm

    High yielding currencies and risk-correlated assets continue to bear the brunt of the US Dollar's rally. […]

  • US 2s-10s curve touches its flattest level in more than a decade
    by Justin Low on 19th June 2018 at 11:56 am

    The US yield curve continues to flatten further amid trade tensions It's fallen by a good 7 bps since the start of last week to now being 35 bps, as the downtrend continues and we're very much on our way towards an inverted yield curve still. With all the trade rhetoric between US and China going […]

  • Ethereum Analysis: Has ETH Found Short-Term Support at $500?
    by Nick Cawley, Analyst on 19th June 2018 at 11:45 am

    Ethereum continues to claw back recent losses and is up over 15% from last week’s lows. Has ETH now made a short-term base or will the downside still prevail? […]

  • Russia's Novak plans to propose increase oil output by 1.5 million bpd at OPEC+ meeting
    by Justin Low on 19th June 2018 at 11:32 am

    Russia's energy minister Novak on the wires No surprises as the 1.5 million bpd proposal was touted by Bloomberg over the weekend. This creates a very interesting situation ahead of the meeting this week. […]

  • Xiaomi Will Have to Dial Down Valuation Hopes
    on 19th June 2018 at 11:24 am

    The tech company has postponed plans for a mainland Chinese listing—a blow to its hopes of a high valuation. […]

  • Market Sentiment Suffers as US-China Trade War Concerns Escalate
    by Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst and Editor on 19th June 2018 at 11:00 am

    Market confidence has been hit by the escalating US-China trade war as Donald Trump threatens to impose tariffs on more Chinese goods and China warns of retaliation. […]

  • Trading Outlook for Gold & Silver Price, US Crude Oil, S&P 500 & More
    by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst on 19th June 2018 at 11:00 am

    Today, we looked at several major markets which are on the move and may have more to go in the direction of recent trends. […]

  • ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar stays bid as risk-off tones prevail
    by Justin Low on 19th June 2018 at 10:58 am

    Forex news from the European trading session - 19 June 2018 Headlines: Markets: - JPY leads, AUD lags behind on the day - European equities are all lower - DAX leading losses -1.3% […]

  • EU Summit draft shows support for plans on trade retaliation against US
    by Justin Low on 19th June 2018 at 10:43 am

    According to the draft text for the 28-29 June EU Summit Apart from that there's also the discussion on asylum policy as mentioned earlier - an outlier to help Merkel and Germany. […]

  • UK PM spokesman says government is sticking by its original proposal on meaningful vote over Brexit deal
    by Justin Low on 19th June 2018 at 10:23 am

    Comments by UK prime minister May's spokesman It's setting up to be a massive next 24 hours for Theresa May. Certainly going to be an interesting one tomorrow when we move to the vote at the House of Commons. […]

  • EU leaders to agree that member states take all necessary measures to counter "secondary movements" of asylum seekers
    by Justin Low on 19th June 2018 at 10:21 am

    According to draft conclusions on the matter, via Reuters Not exactly market-related but it's all part of the ploy to help with getting Merkel over the finish line as she was handed a two-week deadline to strike a deal on the asylum policy. […]

  • US-China Trade War and RBA Guidance Sees AUD Plunge to 13-Month Low
    by Justin McQueen, Analyst on 19th June 2018 at 10:06 am

    Australian Dollar comes under pressure, falling to 13-month lows following the US-China trade war escalation, while softer language on RBA rate guidance also weighs on AUD […]

  • GBPUSD at Risk from Brexit Vote and Bank of England
    by Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst and Editor on 19th June 2018 at 10:00 am

    GBPUSD could extend its losses as UK Prime Minister Theresa May suffers another Brexit defeat and the Bank of England prepares to keep interest rates unchanged. […]

  • UK government will not accept parliament proposal on meaningful vote over Brexit deal - Reuters
    by Justin Low on 19th June 2018 at 9:13 am

    According to an unnamed source cited by Reuters The House of Lords yesterday approved an amendment to the EU withdrawal bill which will grant parliament more power regarding the final deal for Brexit. […]

  • Eurozone April construction output +1.8% vs -0.3% m/m prior
    by Justin Low on 19th June 2018 at 9:00 am

    Latest data released by Eurostat - 19 June 2018 The data here tracks changes in output/sales in the construction industry. Decent readings here, but a minor and lagging data point in the grand scheme of things. […]

  • FinanceFeeds invites you to participate in Malaysia’s Premier B2B FX Industry Expo
    by Andrew Saks-McLeod on 19th June 2018 at 9:00 am

    FinanceFeeds - Be a major sponsor at the most important FX industry Expo in the world's fastest growing region for FX and electronic trading The post FinanceFeeds invites you to participate in Malaysia’s Premier B2B FX Industry Expo appeared first on FinanceFeeds. […]

  • DAX Technical Analysis: Big Test of Support Underway
    by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst on 19th June 2018 at 9:00 am

    The German benchmark was just on the verge of breaking out above the May high post-ECB, but now finds itself trading at a key juncture of support. […]

  • EURUSD Forecast - The Path of Least Resistance Remains Lower
    by Nick Cawley, Analyst on 19th June 2018 at 8:55 am

    EURUSD remains likely to push lower, despite the ongoing US-China trade spat. The US dollar remains firm, despite US Treasury yields slipping lower, while there remain no real reasons to buy the EUR. […]

  • EURUSD Extends on Losses After ECB Draghi’s Cautious Comments
    by Justin McQueen, Analyst on 19th June 2018 at 8:46 am

    EURUSD took another leg lower following cautious comments from President Draghi who highlighted concerns over escalating trade wars. […]

  • Japanese government maintains its economic assessment for the month of June
    by Justin Low on 19th June 2018 at 8:42 am

    Japan's cabinet office releases its monthly economic report Reaffirms that the "economy is growing at a moderate pace". They've maintained the same assessment for the whole of 2018 thus far, after having upgraded it from the "economy is on a moderate recovery". […]

  • Iran, Algeria, Venezuela oppose immediate oil output increase - Reuters
    by Justin Low on 19th June 2018 at 8:34 am

    According to Reuters, citing two OPEC sources It looks like even the possibility of a compromise through a smaller increase in the oil output production may not be well received by Iran and Venezuela. […]

  • OPEC technical panel believes market could absorb extra production due to strong demand - Reuters
    by Justin Low on 19th June 2018 at 8:31 am

    According to Reuters, citing 3 OPEC sources That basically says that they will very much increase the oil output of the current OPEC+ agreement. But the real question remains, by how much. Though, at least this provides more of a confirmation that they are leaning more towards increasing oil production by the conclusion of this week's […]

  • EU's Barnier says UK needs more realism on what's possible after Brexit
    by Justin Low on 19th June 2018 at 8:29 am

    Comments by EU chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier Looks like this basically confirms that we won't be getting any progress from the EU Summit that is to come at the end of this month. The can gets kicked down the road once again. […]

  • Trump-Putin meeting before NATO summit is not on the agenda - report
    by Justin Low on 19th June 2018 at 8:25 am

    According to a report by Interfax, citing Putin's spokesman on the matter Trump has been quite vocal about having Putin around for the G7 summit earlier this month but it looks like there isn't going to be a meet and greet between the two on the sidelines of the NATO summit either. […]

  • Germany's Ifo Institute lowers economic growth projections
    by Justin Low on 19th June 2018 at 8:07 am

    Ifo revises down German growth forecasts for 2018-19 Further downward revisions on forecasts for the German economy, following that of the Bundesbank last Friday . […]

  • Eurozone April current account NSA +€26.2 bn vs +€40.6 bn prior
    by Justin Low on 19th June 2018 at 8:00 am

    Latest data released by the ECB - 19 June 2018 A minor data point, an indication of net flows in/out of the Eurozone economy. Not a data point that matters all too much on a day like this.&nbs […]

  • US President Trump Escalates US-China Trade War; Gold Unmoved
    by Nick Cawley, Analyst on 19th June 2018 at 8:00 am

    US President Donald Trump ramped up the ongoing US-China trade war by announcing a further USD200 billion of tariffs if China retaliates to previously announced tariffs. And there may be even more to come. […]

  • China urges US to stop deeds that will hurt others and itself
    by Justin Low on 19th June 2018 at 7:43 am

    Further comments by China's foreign ministry spokesman, Geng Shuang China continuing the defensive rhetoric. Yet again, nothing new but reinforces the notion that they stand ready to announce countermeasures in the event the US goes through with the reported additional $200 bn tariffs. […]

  • BOE still seen raising rates once this year in Q3 2018 - survey
    by Justin Low on 19th June 2018 at 7:39 am

    According to the latest survey by Bloomberg on 51 economists It's an unchanged expectation from the prior survey in May, but this time around only 55% of respondents foresee a rate hike in August by the Bank of England. In May, that figure was 60%. […]

  • China reiterates it does not want a trade war, but is not afraid of one
    by Justin Low on 19th June 2018 at 7:26 am

    Comments by China's foreign ministry Nothing new from China here but it serves as a reminder that they are ready to retaliate with tit-for-tat measures should Trump decide to go through with the new set of tariffs. […]

  • European stocks weighed down by trade war jitters
    by Justin Low on 19th June 2018 at 7:10 am

    A soggy start to the day for European equities A continuation of the theme from Asian trading. Chinese stocks have managed to pare some losses into the close, but it's still a bad day nonetheless. The Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 indices both closed the day down by 3.8% and 3.5% respectively after having been down […]

  • FinanceFeeds speaks with Mark Chesterman on his prime of prime vision
    by Maria Nikolova on 19th June 2018 at 7:08 am

    FinanceFeeds - FinanceFeeds met with Mr Chesterman to look at his perspective on his new role and his vision for the FX industry's future from a prime of prime point of view. The post FinanceFeeds speaks with Mark Chesterman on his prime of prime vision appeared first on FinanceFeeds. […]

  • It's getting uglier in the equities space
    by Justin Low on 19th June 2018 at 6:39 am

    Chinese major indices are down by more than 4% now The Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 indices are extending losses on the day with the former down by 4.8% and the latter down by 4.4% heading into the close at the top of the hour. […]

  • Risk-off tones continue as European trading gets underway
    by Justin Low on 19th June 2018 at 6:30 am

    The yen and swissie leads the major currency bloc EUR/USD and GBP/USD are down to session lows of 1.1603 and 1.3239 respectively as the dollar is also seeing some bids as risk-off flows continue to dominate. AUD/USD and NZD/USD are also down to session lows of 0.7370 and 0.6895 respectively now. […]

  • Trump Trade War Boosts Yen and Franc, ECB Forum Gets Underway
    by Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist on 19th June 2018 at 6:30 am

    The anti-risk Yen and Swiss Franc soared as an escalating Sino-US trade war rattled financial markets. More of the same looks likely ahead. […]

  • Trading ideas for the European session - 19 June 2018
    by Justin Low on 19th June 2018 at 6:22 am

    Daily thread to exchange ideas and to share your thoughts Good day, everyone! Hope you're all doing well as we get the session underway. It's been a quiet start so far but it's clear what the theme in the market is. Risk-off all around and that looks set to be the name of the game as we get […]

  • Eurostoxx futures -1.4% in early European trading
    by Justin Low on 19th June 2018 at 6:04 am

    The negative tones continue over to Europe The risk-off sentiment from the escalation in the trade rhetoric in China is spilling over to European equities and it's likely we'll see the theme dominate the session as well given that there is little on the agenda in trading today. […]

  • Most Asian Markets Fall On New US Tariff Threat, Trade Dominates
    by David Cottle, Analyst on 19th June 2018 at 5:08 am

    Asian equity took renewed fright on news that the Trump White House was considering yet more trade barriers against China […]

  • Ignore the OPEC Drama, More Oil Is Coming
    on 19th June 2018 at 4:38 am

    OPEC is back to its squabbling ways. But investors who are bidding up oil prices in the expectation of a split are misunderstanding both the history of the cartel and the current state of the oil market. […]

  • Gold Prices May Rise as US, China Trade Spat Sinks Bond Yields
    by Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist on 19th June 2018 at 3:30 am

    Gold prices may turn higher as an escalating trade spat between the US and China sours market sentiment and weighs on yields, boosting the appeal of alternatives. […]

  • Trade Wars Shake the Dow but No Freefall Yet, Dollar Stuck at the Border
    by John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist on 19th June 2018 at 2:29 am

    Monetary policy is still a clear pressure point for both FX and capital markets, but another open-ended fundamental drive – trade wars – has once again shoved its way back into traders’ fears. […]

  • One Area Where Caveats Don’t Undermine Dollar Outlook: Emerging Markets
    by John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist on 19th June 2018 at 2:15 am

    In the short-term, there are a number of tail winds that could potentially support the US Dollar. Long-term, however, emerging markets see one of the few stable outlooks for further strength. […]

  • AUD Vulnerable as US Mulls More Chinese Tariffs, RBA Minutes Pass
    by Daniel Dubrovsky, Junior Analyst on 19th June 2018 at 2:00 am

    Already battered by additional $200b US Chinese tariff threats, the Aussie Dollar resumed its descent after the RBA meeting minutes. AUD/USD could be at risk to further declines. […]

  • EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro Down Move to Accelerate?
    by Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist on 19th June 2018 at 12:41 am

    The Euro is testing key chart support after an upswing faltered above the 1.18 figure as expected. A break would mark the next leg in the long-term down trend. […]

  • ASX 200 Technical Analysis: Bulls Must Consolidate Their Gains
    by David Cottle, Analyst on 19th June 2018 at 12:34 am

    The ASX 200 has surged ahead again but bulls need to show that they can durably keep it above the magic 6,000 lev […]

  • Asia AM Digest: AUD to Look Past RBA Minutes as FX Eye Risk Trends
    by Daniel Dubrovsky, Junior Analyst on 18th June 2018 at 11:00 pm

    Given already known updates from Governor Philip Lowe, the Australian Dollar may looks past the RBA meeting minutes as FX eye risk trends again. […]

  • GBP/USD: Cable Attempts to Carve Out Support Ahead of BoE
    by James Stanley, Currency Strategist on 18th June 2018 at 7:39 pm

    It's been a stark change-of-pace over the past two months in the British Pound, and the BoE is waiting in the wings for another rate decision on Thursday. Will they start to lay the groundwork for an August hike, potentially helping to reverse this two-month trend of weakness? […]

  • Big Banks Could Use More Excitement
    on 18th June 2018 at 7:05 pm

    Trading revenue is likely to disappoint in the second quarter, despite a rise in market turbulence. […]

  • Bitcoin May Reverse Higher Based on Sentiment
    by Abdullah AlAmoudi, on 18th June 2018 at 7:00 pm

    Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current Bitcoin price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long. […]

  • EURUSD Net-Long Positions Drop Below 60%
    by Abdullah AlAmoudi, on 18th June 2018 at 6:30 pm

    The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias. […]

  • Immigration is the American Dream, Gutierrez Says
    by Bloomberg News on 18th June 2018 at 2:46 pm

    Mary Lovely, Peterson Institute Senior Fellow & Syracuse University Professor, says the Chinese economy has opened up quite dramatically. Doug Peebles, AB CIO of Fixed Income, says investment grade average credit quality has never been as low as it is right now. Carlos Gutierrez, Former U.S. Commerce Secretary, thinks the current immigration policy is not good for the U.S. And Paul Sweeney, Bloomberg Intelligence Director of North American Research, updates us on media mergers. […]

  • UK competition regulator invites comments on ION-Fidessa deal
    by Maria Nikolova on 18th June 2018 at 1:37 pm

    FinanceFeeds - The deadline for comments is July 2, 2018, whereas the expected decision date is August 13, 2018. The post UK competition regulator invites comments on ION-Fidessa deal appeared first on FinanceFeeds. […]

  • When Past Performance Actually Is a Guide to Future Results
    on 18th June 2018 at 12:38 pm

    Past performance isn’t necessarily a guide to the future. Investors in public stock markets and mutual funds have heard this for years, and academics have shown it to be true. But it isn’t so in private markets. […]

  • Despite ban, binary options brokers continue to target Quebec investors
    by Maria Nikolova on 18th June 2018 at 10:21 am

    FinanceFeeds - Pushy representatives of binary options brokers approach potential clients via phone, which adds to aggressive social media marketing campaigns of binaries. The post Despite ban, binary options brokers continue to target Quebec investors appeared first on FinanceFeeds. […]

  • TradeStation enables account opening directly from mobile app for Android devices
    by Maria Nikolova on 18th June 2018 at 6:34 am

    FinanceFeeds - The move is targeted at newbies who are looking for a way to open a new account with the broker. The post TradeStation enables account opening directly from mobile app for Android devices appeared first on FinanceFeeds. […]

  • Major exchanges face accusations of entry into Faustian bargain with HFT firms
    by Maria Nikolova on 18th June 2018 at 4:28 am

    FinanceFeeds - The exchanges are said to have attracted HFT firms by providing them with special products and services that allowed them to position their trades to the detriment of other market participants. The post Major exchanges face accusations of entry into Faustian bargain with HFT firms appeared first on FinanceFeeds. […]

  • FXCM UK sees $102m drop in client funds in 2017, sells stake in Salex for €1
    by Maria Nikolova on 16th June 2018 at 7:09 am

    FinanceFeeds - FXCM UK remained loss-making in 2017, with retail trade volume and client cash down. The post FXCM UK sees $102m drop in client funds in 2017, sells stake in Salex for €1 appeared first on FinanceFeeds. […]

  • Big Tech Already Has the Best Show in Town
    on 15th June 2018 at 7:26 pm

    Tech companies have shown they don’t need to own large media agencies to establish a strong presence in the business. […]

  • IG Group presents upgraded IG Community forum
    by Maria Nikolova on 15th June 2018 at 3:32 pm

    FinanceFeeds - The redesigned and enhanced IG Community went live today, offering a fresh design, greater functionality and new content areas. The post IG Group presents upgraded IG Community forum appeared first on FinanceFeeds. […]

  • UK Prudential Regulation Authority clarifies policy on algorithmic trading
    by Maria Nikolova on 15th June 2018 at 2:47 pm

    FinanceFeeds - The new rules, which become effective on June 30, 2018, apply to all algorithmic trading activities of a firm including in respect of unregulated financial instruments such as spot foreign exchange (FX). The post UK Prudential Regulation Authority clarifies policy on algorithmic trading appeared first on FinanceFeeds. […]

  • Tariffs Only Address a Short Term Goal, Rose Says
    by Bloomberg News on 15th June 2018 at 2:44 pm

    William Lee, Milken Institute Chief Economist, says the U.S. is going to be the engine of growth for the global economy. Gideon Rose, Foreign Affairs Magazine Editor, ponders if U.S. trade policy is going to mimic the Iran or the Korea model. Priya Misra, TD Securities Head of Global Interest-Rates Strategy, says the curve is still the single best indicator for a recession. And Craig Moffett, MoffettNathanson Founding Partner, says historically, Comcast is not comfortable with large amounts of debt. […]

  • Apple's Display Plan Won't Give Screen Makers Much Relief
    on 15th June 2018 at 1:21 pm

    The iPhone maker is delaying its full transition to a new screen technology, but that won’t help most Asian manufacturers for long. […]

  • Extradition procedure weighs on CFTC action against Australian trader accused of spoofing
    by Maria Nikolova on 15th June 2018 at 11:02 am

    FinanceFeeds - Jiongsheng (“Jim”) Zhao is currently in police custody in Australia, and is still awaiting extradition to the United States, so the CFTC asks for a brief stay of the civil proceedings against him. The post Extradition procedure weighs on CFTC action against Australian trader accused of spoofing appeared first on FinanceFeeds. […]

  • Goodbye ECB Bond-Buying, Hello Forward Guidance
    on 14th June 2018 at 4:47 pm

    The ECB hasn’t finished surprising investors yet. Thursday it brought the end of its massive bond-buying program closer, but pushed any interest-rate increases further out. The more dovish message won, sending the euro sinking against the dollar. […]

  • Can refugees help to plug Europe’s skilled-labour gaps?
    by The Economist online on 14th June 2018 at 3:09 pm

    THE canteen of Stockholm University could scarcely be more Swedish. Young blond students sip coffee and tap away on Macs. In room 3.89, an outpost of the campus, is another, newer Sweden. Refugees, all of them teachers, from lands far to the south and east are preparing for the classrooms of their new home. Several keep their coats on as Khadije Obeid takes them through the basics of the curriculum and shows a YouTube clip about education law. “In Syria the teacher has much authority,” says Samer, an English teacher, as he raises his hand above his head. “Here he is equal to the students,” he adds as he lowers it.The ten women and seven men are on a “fast-track” programme for refugees with experience in occupations where labour is short. As well as learning Swedish, they get 26 weeks of daily classes, teaching practice and mentoring. The hope is that they will then train or, if their previous qualifications are recognised, go straight to the classroom. The government is running some 30...Continue reading […]

  • How open is America?
    by The Economist online on 14th June 2018 at 3:09 pm

    “JUSTIN has agreed to cut all tariffs and all trade barriers between Canada and the United States,” claimed President Donald Trump to laughter on June 8th, at the G7 summit in Quebec. The next day, in apparent seriousness, Mr Trump—who has slapped tariffs and quotas on imports of aluminium and steel from all the G7 countries, and others—called for unfettered trade within the group: “No tariffs, no barriers. That’s the way it should be.”Over the next two days a more familiar Mr Trump reappeared. After Mr Trudeau said, at a post-summit press conference, that Canada would not be pushed around, he fired off a barrage of tweets calling him “very dishonest & weak”. He blasted Europe too. And he tweeted: “Sorry, we cannot let our friends, or enemies, take advantage of us on Trade anymore.”Suspend disbelief and suppose that Mr Trump’s offer of a barrier-free world is serious. He may want to tear down tariffs and quotas out of a yearning for open markets and lower...Continue reading […]

  • The hounding of Greece’s former statistics chief is disturbing
    by The Economist online on 14th June 2018 at 3:09 pm

    IMAGINE the tale of Sisyphus, the mythical king doomed to spend eternity pushing a boulder up a hill only for it to roll back down, retold by Kafka. The result would be very like the tortuous story of Andreas Georgiou, Greece’s former statistics chief.Since 2011 Mr Georgiou has faced several criminal charges. One is that he inflated budget-deficit figures, forcing Greece to seek a bail-out and resulting in alleged damages of €171bn ($190bn). Another is that he violated his duty by failing to seek approval from the statistical agency’s board before sending the figures to the European authorities.Although Mr Georgiou was acquitted several times on both charges, the acquittals were annulled and he was retried. In 2017 he was found guilty of a violation of duty. He has now learnt that the Supreme Court had rejected his appeal, rendering the conviction final. It carries a two-year suspended sentence. In May prosecutors said they were refiling the charges that he inflated...Continue reading […]

  • As Western lenders retreat, African banks see an opportunity
    by The Economist online on 14th June 2018 at 3:09 pm

    ADE AYEYEMI’S office in Lomé, the capital of Togo, is a good place to think about crossing borders. Ghana is ten minutes’ drive away. From his window the boss of Ecobank can watch trucks rumble along the seafront, some bound for Burkina Faso, a day’s journey, or Mali, perhaps another day on. At night, cargo ships twinkle offshore. From here Ecobank’s vision—“to integrate the continent”, Mr Ayeyemi says—is clear. Whether it will be profitable is less obvious.Ecobank was founded in 1985 by business leaders with backing from the Economic Community of West African States, a regional bloc. It has branches in 33 countries, more than any other African bank (see chart). It is not alone in its ambitions. Nigeria’s United Bank for Africa (UBA) wants to make half its profits elsewhere in the continent by 2022. South Africa’s Standard Bank recently opened in Ivory Coast, its 20th African country. Moroccan banks are trekking across the Sahara.African bankers have long preached...Continue reading […]

  • How to play Argentina
    by The Economist online on 14th June 2018 at 3:09 pm

    THERE is a type of footballer who inspires the affection of fans and the ire of coaches. He is talented, usually extravagantly so. But he is also wayward to the same lavish degree. Discipline seems beyond him, on or off the pitch. It was said of one of this kind, Stan Bowles of Queens Park Rangers and England, that if he could pass a betting shop as well as he passed a ball he’d be a rich man.Which brings us, naturally, to Argentina—not to its footballers, who have mostly fulfilled their potential, but to its economy, which has not. A century ago, it was the country of the future. It betrayed that promise without ever quite extinguishing hopes that it might eventually live up to it. Like a talented but troublesome sportsman, it keeps being given another chance. The board of the IMF will soon approve a $50bn support package for Argentina. It has had countless such programmes in the past without much changing. The fund is betting that this time is different. Should investors make a similar...Continue reading […]

  • Rate rises affect global markets—and may feed back to America
    by The Economist online on 14th June 2018 at 3:09 pm

    ON JUNE 13th the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point, the seventh such increase since it began shouldering rates away from zero in December 2015. Markets shrugged—a rather different reaction from the one that followed a policy adjustment made five years ago this month. The chairman then, Ben Bernanke, dared advise investors that the Fed might soon start winding down its stimulative bond-purchases. Traders fell to their fainting couches, but not before pausing to sell. Yields on ten-year Treasury bonds leapt. Currencies around the world flopped. This “taper tantrum”, as it became known, raised concerns that Fed tightening might so perturb global markets that America itself could suffer. Having survived both tapering and rate increases, Fed officials now seem inclined to dismiss such worries. They should not. The danger of a nasty Fed feedback loop remains.Wise central bankers are prepared for ill winds blowing from abroad. Thanks to...Continue reading […]

  • Other American banks may have misbehaved as Wells Fargo did. Which ones?
    by The Economist online on 14th June 2018 at 3:09 pm

    Role modelIF THERE is a single example of how dramatically the regulatory environment has changed for American banks in the past 18 months, it may be the trickle of information that has recently emerged about an inquiry into their sales practices. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), a banking watchdog, began it in 2016 after widespread malpractice was uncovered at Wells Fargo, one of the country’s biggest banks. It ended the inquiry quietly by writing to several banks on June 4th; it sent the letters to Congress on June 11th. The public learned of the probe only because of diligent reporting by American Banker, a trade publication which appears to have gleaned its information mainly from banking consultants.The OCC responded to American Banker’s report by releasing enough information to suggest that some banks were guilty of at least minor jiggery-pokery. It confirmed as much in testy exchanges between...Continue reading […]

  • China’s tighter regulation of shadow banks begins to bite
    by The Economist online on 14th June 2018 at 3:09 pm

    THE teller at ICBC, China’s (and the world’s) biggest bank, ushers a new, well-heeled customer into a private room. It is not for VIP treatment but a stern warning. The customer wants to invest in products offering higher returns than a basic savings account. The teller fixes a camera on her and reels off a series of questions. Are you aware that prices can go down as well as up? Do you understand that the bank does not guarantee this product? Only when the customer has been recorded saying “yes” does she get her wish.Some complain that these videotaped agreements, now mandatory at Chinese banks selling similar investment products, feel like interrogations. But for the financial system, they are a step away from the precipice. Banks have used such transactions to channel cash into off-balance-sheet loans, serving riskier corners of the economy. Firms with little lending expertise have also muscled into the same space.The catch-all phrase to describe this is shadow banking. It is...Continue reading […]

  • Big Media Deals on the Horizon, Rubenstein Says
    by Bloomberg News on 14th June 2018 at 2:54 pm

    Robert Sinche, Amherst Pierpont Securities Global Strategist, says the current U.S. administration has done a lot to stimulate the economy. Jane Foley, Rabobank Senior Currency Analyst, thinks many central bankers are assuming that wage inflation will rise.Richard Greenfield, BTIG Media and Technology Analyst, says changes in consumer behavior are spurring rapid consolidation in media. David Rubenstein, The Carlyle Group Co-Founder & Co-Executive Chairman, predicts we'll see more media transactions of size getting done quickly.&nbs […]

  • To Upscale in Media, You Have to Acquire, Whittaker Says
    by Bloomberg News on 13th June 2018 at 2:42 pm

    Alan Ruskin, Deutsche Bank Global Co-Head of FX Strategy, advises to be careful about the noise around headline CPI.  Ian Whittaker, Liberum Head of European Media Research, analyzes the AT&T-Time Warner deal approval. Lindsey Piegza, Stifel Chief Economist, says we could be talking about an inverted yield curve by the end of the year. Eli Lake, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, thinks Kim Jong Un is a monster.&nbs […]

  • N. Korea Has Potential, OECD Sec.-General Says
    by Bloomberg News on 12th June 2018 at 2:41 pm

    Daniel Ten Kate, Bloomberg News Asia Government Managing Editor, and Lisa Collins, Center For Strategic & International Studies Korea Chair, discuss the historic summit between the U.S. and North Korea.Shahab Jalinoos, Credit Suisse Global Head of FX Trading Strategy, says political risk in the U.S. is still muted compared to risk in other countries. Kathy Moon, The Brookings Institution Center for East Asia Policy Studies Senior Fellow, thinks members of Congress will want more clarification about what President Trump and North Korea's Kim discussed. Jose Angel Gurria, OECD Secretary-General, says North Korea has the potential to compliment South Korea and the whole world's economy.&nbs […]

  • N.K. Will Want Security Assurances, Hormats Says
    by Bloomberg News on 11th June 2018 at 2:57 pm

    Toluse Olorunnipa, Bloomberg Washington Correspondent, updates us on the Trump-Kim Summit in Singapore. Charles Kantor, Neuberger Berman Senior Portfolio Manager, says the consumer is really strong right now. Charles Armstrong, Columbia University Korea Foundation Professor, says North Koreans are tough negotiators.Lara Rhame, FS Investments Chief U.S. Economist, says the ECB rate decisions are a bigger question mark than the Fed's.  Robert Hormats, Kissinger Associates Vice Chairman, says North Korea doesn't occupy a great part of the market's attention.&nbs […]

  • Our Sentiment is Still Good on EM, Santos Says
    by Bloomberg News on 8th June 2018 at 2:10 pm

    Andrew Barden,Bloomberg's European Government Reporter, joins us from the G-7 in Quebec to preview the geopolitical tension ahead. Gabriela Santos, JPM Asset Management Global Market Strategist, says EM as a whole is a more resilient picture than the recent headlines. Steven Major, HSBC Managing Director & Global Head of Fixed Income Research, imagines two more rate hikes will be enough for the Fed. Steven Ricchiuto, Mizuho Securities Chief U.S. Economist, thinks the G-7 should focus in on a narrow G-3. And a special segment with Abby Joseph Cohen, Goldman Sachs Advisory Director & Senior Investment Strategist, on the Stanley Cup.&nbs […]

  • A case for owning euro-zone shares
    by The Economist online on 7th June 2018 at 2:45 pm

    IN AN episode of “Seinfeld”, a 1990s television comedy, George Costanza, a serial failure played by Jason Alexander, decides that every instinct he has is wrong. So he resolves to do the opposite. He is soon squiring a new girlfriend and is up for a dream job. “It’s all happening because I’m completely ignoring every urge towards common sense and good judgment I’ve ever had,” he says.Success in investing often means going against the grain—and your own feelings. To do otherwise is to be swept along by the general greed and fear. Still, fear is a useful emotion. It would be unwise, for instance, to ignore the recent turmoil in Italy, where bond yields spiked in response to concerns that the country might be on the road to leaving the euro. Though the worst fears have subsided, the coalition that was eventually given the president’s blessing to form a government looks capable of causing trouble.A natural inclination in the circumstances is to turn away from euro-zone...Continue reading […]

  • In developing countries, many people cannot afford not to work
    by The Economist online on 7th June 2018 at 2:45 pm

    No time for tweetingAMERICA’S unemployment statistics attract close attention, even from presidents. Early on June 1st President Donald Trump tweeted that he was looking forward to the latest figure (3.8%), released that morning. China’s unemployment numbers, by contrast, attract mostly ridicule. They have barely budged since 2011 despite the upheavals of the period.Many China-watchers therefore hoped that a new measure of unemployment, dating from 2016 but published monthly since April, would be more revealing. Unlike the older statistic, which counts only those registered as jobless at local labour offices, the new measure draws on a survey of the labour force, collected by trained enumerators and beamed directly to Beijing beyond the grasp of local officials. It now covers 120,000 households across urban China (on top of a longer-running survey of 31 cities), providing, in theory, a representative snapshot of the biggest unemployed population in the...Continue reading […]

  • A referendum on the way money is created
    by The Economist online on 7th June 2018 at 2:45 pm

    TO ITS opponents, the Vollgeld initiative is “suicidal” and a “dangerous experiment”. To its supporters, it is the ticket to a “fairer and more stable banking system”. Swiss voters will decide for themselves on June 10th, when the proposal for sovereign money, which would rewire the country’s banking system, are put to a referendum that, in theory, would be binding.The heart of the argument is whether private-sector banks should be able to create money. In modern economies, most money takes the form of deposits in commercial banks, rather than the cash in circulation and the reserves determined by the central bank. And bank deposits are mainly created through bank lending. Lenders can thus lend far more than they hold in central-bank reserves.Vollgeld supporters want to take such money-creating powers away from banks. Bank deposits are not as safe as sovereign money, they say. If a bank collapses, depositors lose...Continue reading […]

  • Two Asian stock exchanges tussle over market data
    by The Economist online on 7th June 2018 at 2:45 pm

    BUYING and selling shares in India is not for the faint of heart. Its own central-bank governor reckons equity capital is taxed up to five times. Never fear. There is a well-established alternative. Investors can just as easily buy financial instruments that track share prices but are not themselves shares. Such “derivatives” are used across the world to mirror markets in everything from platinum to pork bellies. But they also raise awkward questions: can the exchange that generates prices by matching buyers and sellers stop a rival using the data to create its own derivatives?A quarrel between the Singapore Exchange (SGX) and the National Stock Exchange (NSE) in Mumbai touches that very issue. Since 2000 global investors wanting exposure to Indian shares but not Indian red tape and tax have gone via SGX. Under a licence from NSE, punters could trade a derivative linked to the Nifty 50, an index which is to India what the FTSE 100 is to Britain or the S&P 500 is to...Continue reading […]

  • EMs Have Different Growth Issues, Bailin Says
    by Bloomberg News on 7th June 2018 at 2:36 pm

    David Bailin, Citi Private Bank Global Head of Investments, says Brazil is early in its economic recovery. Elsa Lignos, RBC Global Head of FX Strategy, thinks currencies are doing what they're supposed to do as shock absorbers. Steve Keen, Kingston University Professor, says the vibrant stage of American capitalism was the forties to the sixties.Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners President, says the complexion of the market seems to be changing.&nbs […]

  • U.S. Middle Class' Income is Frozen, Aulette Says
    by Bloomberg News on 6th June 2018 at 3:39 pm

    Tobias Levkovich, Citi Chief U.S. Equity Strategist, says investors don't have great conviction in their positions in Europe. John Taft, Baird Vice Chairman, compares how business is done in New York versus how it's done in the Heartland. Shannon O'Neil, Council on Foreign Relations Senior Fellow of Latin American Studies, says Brazil has been looking elsewhere for growth since the U.S. is closing off.  Ken Auletta, "Frenemies" Author, reminisces about his time on Bobby Kennedy's presidential campaign.&nbs […]

  • We are Pro-Global Trade, NASDAQ CEO Shares
    by Bloomberg News on 6th June 2018 at 2:57 pm

    John Ryding, RDQ Economics Chief Economist, says views on trade have regressed to the 17th century. Kimberly Robinson, Bloomberg Law Supreme Court Reporter, joins to discuss SCOTUS rulings.  Gene Munster, Loup Ventures Managing Partner & Analyst, says Apple makes their money on selling hardware, not on data. Adena Friedman, NASDAQ CEO, thinks European investors are being sanguine in light of heightened trade tensions.&nbs […]

  • A Story of Fading Tax Stimulus with Zentner
    by Bloomberg News on 4th June 2018 at 2:45 pm

    Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley Chief U.S. Economist, expects growth to continue...with some caveats.Federico Santi, Eurasia Group Analyst, suspects things will get worse in Italy before they get better.Adam Posen, Peterson Institute for International Economics President, says the current U.S. administration's trade policy is not capitalist, Republican, or pro-growth. Robert D. Kaplan, Author of "The Return of Marco Polo's World" & Center for a New American Security Senior Fellow, says a trade war is merely an aspect of a world at amoral geopolitical competition.&nbs […]

  • Dysfunctions in Labor Markets with Jason Furman
    by Bloomberg News on 1st June 2018 at 3:29 pm

    Tom Porcelli, RBC Capital Markets Chief U.S. Economist, says we're not yet at full employment. Ted Alden, Council on Foreign Relations Senior Fellow & Author of "Failure To Adjust: How Americans Got Left Behind In The Global Economy," defines a trade war as tit for tat tariff retaliation outside the rules of the trading system. Elisa Martinuzzi, Bloomberg's EMEA Finance & Investing ME, updates us on political events in Italy. Bill Gross, Janus Henderson Fund Manager, defends his strategy that was widely criticized earlier this week. Alan Krueger, Princeton Professor & Former Council of Economic Advisers Chairman under President Obama, recaps his routine when he previewed jobs numbers for the White House. Jason Furman, Harvard Professor & Former White House Council of Economic Advisers Chairman, says the biggest constraint on U.S. wage growth is its lack of productivity growth.&nbs […]

  • Euro Isn't a Well-Designed System, Zingales Says
    by Bloomberg News on 31st May 2018 at 2:34 pm

    Luigi Zingales, Chicago Booth School Finance Professor, thinks people underestimate how devastated Italy is by its economic situation.Donald Straszheim, Evercore ISI Head of China Research, thinks China sees Washington as unreliable and untrustworthy.Gina Martin Adams, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief Equity Strategist, says small cap stocks have outperformed tremendously.Catherine Mann, Citi Research Global Chief Economist, advises we can't be protectionist on the side of trade and welcome international capital flows. Gerard Cassidy, RBC Capital Markets Analyst, jumps on the phone to review the latest Deutsche Bank news.&nbs […]

  • Italy is Falling Behind, Kapoor Says
    by Bloomberg News on 30th May 2018 at 2:46 pm

    Paul Donovan, UBS Chief Economist, says by and large, Europe has emerged from the recession but there are persisting problems. Sony Kapoor, Re-Define Managing Director, says far too many Euro-related policies are driven by Germany's economic weight. Megan Greene, Manulife Asset Management Managing Director & Chief Economist, says the Fed does not want to be in the headlines for rising inequality in the U.S. Michael Feroli, JP Morgan Securities Chief U.S. Economist, is unsure of where we are in the business cycle but think it's safe to say we're not early in it.&nbs […]

  • Euro Weakness vs. Dollar Strength with Rosenberg
    by Bloomberg News on 29th May 2018 at 2:10 pm

    Jeff Rosenberg, BlackRock Chief Fixed Income Strategist, says his EM view has changed quite a bit in the past few months.Stefan Selig, BridgePark Advisors Managing Partner & Former Under-Secretary of Commerce for International Trade, says it makes no sense to think of our trade deficit as a scorecard. Dean Curnutt, Macro Risk Advisors CEO, says there's certainly a risk that the dollar continues to rise.Diane Swonk, Grant Thornton Chief Economist, is concerned about the accumulation of debt in the U.S. economy. […]

  • I'm Worried About GDP Growth, Fed's Kaplan Says
    by Bloomberg News on 29th May 2018 at 2:05 pm

    Christian Schulz, Citi Economics Team Director, says there's plenty of reasons to believe Spanish has become a semi-core Eurozone country. Thomas Byrne, Korean Society President & Columbia University SIPA Professor, says North Korea is a black box but thinks their economy is in trouble. Robert Kaplan, Dallas Fed President, and Michael McKee, Bloomberg's International Economic & Policy Correspondent, review the U.S. economy. Margaret Brennan, CBS Face the Nation Host, says there is no unified message on trade from the Republican or Democratic parties.&nbs […]

  • Both Sides Benefit from Trade, Jessop Says
    by Bloomberg News on 24th May 2018 at 2:46 pm

    Richard Bravo, Bloomberg News EU Government Editor, and Julian Jessop, Institute of Economic Affairs Chief Economist, talk Europe's confusion over the U.S. administration's mercurial trade policy. Alison Williams, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Banks Analyst, wraps the Deutsche Bank Shareholder Meeting earlier today.Geoff Dennis, UBS Investment Bank Head of Global Emerging Markets, says the dollar will go back down eventually and that will change sentiment for EM. Scott Mushkin, Wolfe Research Senior Retail Analyst & Managing Director, suggests Target should increase their food offerings to stay afloat. Craig Gordon, Bloomberg News Washington Bureau Chief, jumps on the phone to talk the breaking headlines: President Trump has cancelled his summit with North Korea's Kim&nbs […]

  • We're Halfway Through this Cycle, Gimbel Predicts
    by Bloomberg News on 23rd May 2018 at 4:21 pm

    Hans Redeker, Global Head of FX Strategy at Morgan Stanley, gives us an overview of dollar strength and the slump in Turkish lira.  Isaac Boltansky, Compass Point Research Policy Research Managing Director, says the new Dodd-Frank legislation is a modest, narrowly-tailored bill. Don Gimbel, Geneva Advisors Portfolio Manager, predicts there's a couple of years left in this economic cycle. Nabila Ahmed, Bloomberg News Deals Reporter, says Comcast is one of the most indebted American companies.&nbs […]

  • Interest Rates Are Going to Normalize, Blain Says
    by Bloomberg News on 22nd May 2018 at 3:51 pm

    Bill Blain, Mint Partners Fixed Income Strategist & Head of Capital Markets, says he's positive about the U.S.-China trade riffs in the long-term. Tim Armstrong, Oath Inc. CEO, says consumers are flocking to quality content right now. David Kirkpatrick, Techonomy CEO & Founder, offers Facebook some advice: be more transparent. Poonam Goyal, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Analyst, reviews Marvin Ellison's run as CEO at J.C. Penney per the announcement he's headed to Lowe's.&nbs […]

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