Important: Please be aware that the following expected figures are analysts estimates based upon the data available at the time this calendar was posted. As each data point draws nearer you should expect some fluctuation in these expectations and stay as up to date as you possibly can as to any renewed expectations immediately prior to the release of a data point.
12.50am – Japan GDP (Q2, preliminary): economic growth is expected to have weakened in Q2, falling to 0.2% from 0.5% QoQ, and weakening to 0.7% YoY from 1.9%.
2.30am – RBA minutes: it looks increasingly likely that the RBA will join other central banks in easing policy. These minutes cover a meeting where policy was left unchanged, but may reveal possible clues about the future direction of policy.
9.30am – UK CPI (July): we get our first glimpse of how UK prices have fared post-Brexit. Prices are expected to have risen by 0.5% YoY, in line with June, while the MoM rate accelerates to 0.4% from 0.2%. Core CPI is forecast to hold at 1.4% for another month.
10am – German ZEW (August): economic sentiment is forecast to have risen to 2.1 from -6.8, while the current conditions index rises to 50.6 from 49.8.
1.30pm – US CPI (July): US price growth is expected to have been 1% YoY and 0.0% MoM, with the former figure in line with June and the latter rising from 0.2%. Core CPI is expected to move to 2% from 2.3% YoY.
9.30am – UK unemployment and wage data: the claimant count for July is forecast to surge to 8800 from 400, while the July unemployment rate holds at 4.9%. Average hourly earnings (including bonuses) are expected to grow by 2.5% in June, up from 2.3% in May.
3.30pm – US EIA crude inventories: stockpiles are forecast to decline by 100,000 barrels, from a 1.1 million barrel jump in the preceding week.
7pm – Fed minutes: at the latest meeting, policymakers left the interest rate unchanged, noting that the labour market was stronger and that global risks had decreased, despite the Brexit vote. Since then, US NFPs have pointed to further strength in the recovery, putting fresh pressure on the FOMC. However, the chance of a 2016 rate hike is still no higher than 40.6%.
12.50am – Japan trade balance (July): surplus expected to fall to ¥466.3 billion, from ¥693 billion, as exports continue to fall, as they did in June, thanks to the stronger yen.
2.30am – Australia employment data (July): 10k jobs are expected to have been added in July, while the unemployment rate is expected to hold at 5.8%.
9.30am – UK retail sales (July): sales are expected to have risen 4% YoY, down from 4.3% in June, and are forecast to rise 1% MoM to 0.1%, an improvement over June’s -0.9% print.
10.00am – EUR CPI YoY (Final): Expected in line with forecasts at 0.2%
1.30pm – US initial jobless claims: after last week’s 266,000 figure, the number of new unemployment claims is expected to rise slightly to 269,000.
1.30pm – Canada CPI (July): YoY price growth is forecast to be 1.4%, down from 1.5% in June, while the MoM figure moves to 0.0% from 0.2%. Core CPI is expected to hold at 2.1% YoY, 0.0% MoM.
Source: IG / FF / CC