Important: Please be aware that the following expected figures are analysts estimates based upon the data available at the time this calendar was posted. As each data point draws nearer you should expect some fluctuation in these expectations and stay as up to date as you possibly can as to any renewed expectations immediately prior to the release of a data point.
No major economic data releases
5am – UK Gfk Consumer Confidence (August): July’s poll showed the biggest decline in consumer confidence for more than 26 years in the wake of the Brexit vote. So will it bounce back in August? Last week’s retail sales data suggests consumers were out in force amid the good August weather, but monthly retail sales figures are notoriously volatile.
9am – Eurozone Markit manufacturing/services. Composite PMIs (August, preliminary): The PMIs have been largely steady in recent months, and there’s no indication this will change in August. The July manufacturing figure was 52.0 and the services figure was 52.9. Anything over 50 signals expansion.
11am – UK CBI Industrial Trends Survey – orders (August): This data isn’t usually closely watched, but the July total order book balance fell to minus 4, from minus 2 in June, and this weighed on shares in London as it was taken as a first signal of the potential impact of the Brexit vote on the economy. Recent UK data has not been as bad, and the Leave campaign are hailing this as confirmation that the Remain campaign’s dire warnings about the economic impact of Brexit was just scare mongering. So this survey will be closely watched again this month.
12.45pm – US Markit manufacturing PMI (August, preliminary): The figure has risen for the last two months, hitting 52.9 in July. Prior to that, the PMI had been in a downtrend since last summer.
3pm – Eurozone consumer confidence (August): The European Commission’s measure of consumer confidence in the single currency area also fell in July in the wake of the UK’s vote to leave the EU, to minus 7.9 from minus 7.2 in June. It’s expected to worsen further to minus 8.4 in August.
7am – German GDP (second-quarter, final): The preliminary reading was 0.4%, down from the 0.7% growth of the first quarter. The final reading is expected at 0.3%.
9pm – German IFO Business Climate Survey (August): The business climate survey from IFO is expected to result in a steady reading compared with 108.3 in July.
1.30pm – US durable goods orders (July): Economists are expecting a bounce back to 3.5% after the negative 3.9% reading in June. Excluding more volatile spending on transportation, the forecast is 0.3%, from negative 0.4% in June.
2.45pm – US Markit services PMI (August, preliminary): The figure has been steady for the past two months, coming in at 51.4 in July.This print is expected slightly stronger at 52.2
9.30am – UK GDP QoQ (Second Estimate): Expected flat at 0.6%
1.30pm – US GDP QoQ (Preliminary): Expected at 1.1% against a prior print of 1.2%
Janet Yellen speaks – Janet Yellen’s appearance at the Jacksons Hole Symposium is hotly anticipated as the one appearance which has the potential to shape monetary policy expectations going forward. With major policy announcements being made at this event by her predecessor, traders will follow this for clues of future Fed action.
Source: Joshua Mahony (IG Index) / Forex Factory / Charles Clifton