Important: Please be aware that the following expected figures are analysts estimates based upon the data available at the time this calendar was posted. As each data point draws nearer you should expect some fluctuation in these expectations and stay as up to date as you possibly can as to any renewed expectations immediately prior to the release of a data point.
The WEEK AHEAD Forex Trading calendar:
12.50am – Japan trade balance (June): surplus expected to rise to Y370 billion from a Y40 billion deficit last month.
9am – German IFO survey (July): the business climate index is forecast to fall to 107.7 from 108.7, while the expectations indicator falls to 102.4 from 103.1
2.45pm – US services, composite PMI (July, preliminary): the services PMI is expected to rise to 51.6 from 51.4, moving further into expansion territory, while the composite number edges up to 51.3 from 51.2.
3pm – US new home sales (June), consumer confidence (July): sales expected to rise to an annual rate of 560K from 551K, while the MoM figure moves from -6% to 0%. Meanwhile, consumer confidence is forecast to weaken, with the index falling to 95.5 from 98.
7am – German consumer confidence (August): confidence forecast to fall to 9.8 from 10.1
9.30am – UK GDP (Q2, preliminary): although this reading will cover the quarter containing the Brexit referendum, it will likely not contain too much impact from the vote. Y/Y growth is expected to slow to 1.8% YoY from 2% whilst Q/Q is expected to rise slightly to 0.5% from 0.4%.
1.30pm – US durable goods orders (June): orders are expected to fall 1.5% MoM, an improvement on May’s 2.2% drop, while excluding transport the figure will rise 0.2% from a fall 0.3% in May.
3pm – US pending home sales (June): sales are forecast to have improved in June, with the MoM figure rising 1.5% from a 3.7% drop in May.
3.30pm – US EIA crude inventories: stockpiles expected to fall by 600,000, a slowdown in the rate of decline from a 2.3 million barrel fall a week earlier.
7pm – FOMC rate decision: current expectations suggest just an 8% chance of a rate increase at this meeting, but with recent NFP data having improved, and other US economic data looking better the Fed may have a tricky time justifying any decision to leave policy unchanged.
8.55am – German unemployment (June): expected to fall by 4000 from a 6000 drop in May. The rate is forecast to stay at 6.1%.
10am – eurozone business confidence (July): this data point had been steady recovering since February, but fell again in June. This month is expected to see a further deterioration, with the index falling to 0.17 from 0.22.
1pm – German inflation data (July, preliminary): forecasts suggest the rate will rise to 0.2% MoM from 0.1%, and from 0.3% to 0.4% YoY
1.30pm – US initial jobless claims: claims for the preceding week are expected to be 257K, up from 253K a week earlier.
12.30am – Japan inflation data, unemployment rate (June): price growth is expected to be 0.1% MoM, the same as in May, while the unemployment rate is likely to hold at 3.2%, also the same as the previous month. Market to watch: JPY crosses
3am – BoJ interest rate decision: ‘helicopter money’ is apparently off the cards, but with the BoJ having slashed its inflation forecast policymakers will be faced with a difficult task as they look to bolster the national economy, with PM Shinzo Abe’s renewed mandate possibly giving them more freedom for manoeuver.
10am – eurozone GDP (Q2, preliminary), unemployment rate (June): economic growth is expected to be 0.3% for the quarter, from from 0.6% for the first quarter, while YoY growth is expected to be 1.6%, from 1.7% a year ago. Unemployment for the eurozone as a whole is forecast to remain at 10.1%.
1.30pm – US GDP (Q2, preliminary): US growth is forecast to have increased to 2.6% from 1.1% QoQ, as the economy rebounds from a weak first quarter.
3pm – US Michigan consumer confidence (July, final): confidence is expected to be revised to 93.7 from 93.5.