The WEEK AHEAD Forex Trading calendar: WC Monday 3rd to Friday 7th October 2016

Important: Please be aware that the following expected figures are analysts estimates based upon the data available at the time this calendar was posted. As each data point draws nearer you should expect some fluctuation in these expectations and stay as up to date as you possibly can as to any renewed expectations immediately prior to the release of a data point.


Monday 3rd October

9:30am UK Manufacturing PMI – Previous 53.3/forecast 52.1 – After a good reading last month the market is looking to see whether post Bexit momentum can be maintained.

3pm US ISM Manufacturing PMI – Previous 49.4/forecast 50.4 – After a poor reading last month failure to re-enter expansionary territory (over 50) could be a significant setback for confidence and the probability of a 2016 FOMC rates hike.


Tuesday 4th October

4:30am AUD Interest Rate decision and Statement – Expected flat at 1.5%. This will be the first statement for new central bank chief Lowe so the market will be vigilant for any change to rhetoric or monetary policy.

9:30am UK Construction PMI – Previous 49.2/forecast 49.1 – As with the UK Manufacturing PMI this will be an important number to watch. A beat on  expectations could prove to be short term bullish for GBP.


Wednesday 5th October

1:30am AUD Retail Sales Previous 0%/forecast 0.2% – Unlikely to be a significant market mover but should be a good indication on how close the RBA is to reaching its 2/3% inflation target.

9:30am UK Services PMI – Previous 52.9/forecast 52.1 – Looking for another expansionary figure here (above 50) to again confirm whether post referendum momentum is continuing through the services sector, the U.K.’s largest business sector.

3pm US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI – Previous 51.4/forecast 53.1 – If delivered as forecast  this could lead to further speculation of an additional interest rate hike in December.


Thursday 6th October

7am German Factory Orders – Previous 0.2%/forecast 0.3% – Not a significant market mover but a good indication on economic growth within the Eurozone’s largest economy.


Friday 7th October

9:30am UK Manufacturing Production – Previous -0.9%/forecast 0.4% – Again another important figure for the UK with potential implications for future interest rates.

1:30pm CAD Employment Report – Previous: 7.0% / Forecast: No data as yet. Despite last week’s positive CAD GDP data, a weaker than expected employment report could cast doubt over the Canadian outlook, possibly giving rise to speculation over further easing of monetary policy.

1:30pm USD Average Hourly Earnings – Previous 0.1%/forecast 0.2% – Arguably as important but often overlooked as non-farm payrolls, this has a direct impact on the spending power of consumers which ultimately drives inflation. Anything less than 0.2% would be hugely disappointing for the Fed.

1:30pm USD Non-farm Payrolls – Previous 151K/forecast 171K – While unlikely to have a significant impact on the November interest rate decision (currently a 90/10% hold) it will set the tone for December, and should it beat expectations could further signal a December interest rate rise. Keep an eye out for revisions to August’s figure also which initially came in quite weak and could be revised upwards.

Source: Clifton FX

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