Important: Please be aware that the following expected figures are analysts estimates based upon the data available at the time this calendar was posted. As each data point draws nearer you should expect some fluctuation in these expectations and stay as up to date as you possibly can as to any renewed expectations immediately prior to the release of a data point.
The WEEK AHEAD Forex Trading calendar: WC Monday 4th to Friday 8th July 2016
9.30am – UK construction PMI (June): it will be interesting to see how the sector performed ahead of the UK’s Brexit vote at the end of last month. The index itself is expected to edge lower, to 51.1 from 51.2.
US markets closed for Independence Day holiday.
2.30am – Australia trade balance (May): deficit expected to widen to A$2.1 billion from A$1.6 billion.
2.45am – China Caixin services PMI (June): expected to fall to 51.1 from 51.2.
5.30am – RBA rate decision: although they are expected to keep rates on hold at 1.75%, it will be interesting to see what the first major central bank to meet post-Brexit has to say on the economy.
9.30am – UK services PMI (June): the index rebounded from a dismal showing in April to stand at 53.5, and this improvement is expected to continue, with the PMI reading rising to 53.7 for this most important of the UK’s three PMI readings.
1.30pm – US trade balance (May): a widening of the deficit is expected, to $37.9 billion from $37.4 billion.
3pm – US ISM non-mfg PMI (June): after rising steadily since February, May’s number saw a sharp drop, but the June figure is expected to improve, rising from 52.9 to 53.2.
3.30pm – EIA crude inventories: after a 4 million barrel drop last week that helped crude prices rebound, we will be looking to see whether the fall in stockpiles is continuing.
7pm – FOMC minutes: given the events since the Fed last met these minutes of the recent meeting may seem to be a little past their sell-by date, but some nuggets of interest may be gleaned. Given that some members were already leaning dovish, with noted hawk Bullard doing a notable about-face in the dot plot of interest rate expectations, we might infer from the minutes that the balance of power will have shifted once more to the doves that advocate looser policy.
1.15pm – US ADP employment report (June): both April and May saw job creation rates well down on those for the first quarter, and the trend is expected to continue, with June’s number falling to 160,800 from 173,000. The report, usually released on a Wednesday, is delayed due to Monday’s Independence Day holiday in the US.
1.30pm – US initial jobless claims: the figure is expected to rise to 269,000 from 268,000 a week earlier.
9.30am – UK trade balance (May): the deficit is expected to widen to £3.8 billion from £2.9 billion a month earlier.
1.30pm – US non-farm payrolls (June): job creation is expected to have rebounded from May’s disastrous 38,000, hitting 170,000 for the final month of Q2 and the first half of the year. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.8% from 4.7%, while average hourly earnings rise 0.2%, broadly in line with last month.