The USDCAD saw some volatile action on the charts as it leapt up to touch resistance at 1.3420, this was somewhat short lived in terms of movement as it saw a strong retreat on the back of volatile oil markets pushing the USDCAD sharply around. While oil rig numbers have fallen which should help to taper of supply there has been no real pickup in demand for oil as global growth has been relatively flat and as we see a push for renewables start to take a toll on oil producers. Despite all of this the USDCAD is certainly one to watch and not just on the oil front as the new government is expected to stimulate the economy by borrowing and running a deficit to bolster the economy, the question is whether this will be passed on to the economy, but in the short term it’s likely to drive down the value of the CAD, and the USDCAD will certainly benefit.
While looking at it on the charts the touch at resistance will certainly be a key focus for me, as I would be looking to see if we have indeed seen a double top or this is just momentum finally looking to push through completely. The resistance level at 1.3420 has for the most part been a strong resistance level, but with a strong bullish trend line it will be hard to stop the rise of the USD against the CAD. Any push down is likely to find strong resistance at 1.3346 and I would look for traders to re-enter to capitalise on the momentum at hand.
The NZDUSD has been testing resistance in the opening session and the 20 MA has looked to assistance resistance as it holds back the tide of any bulls and takes a tumble in the opening session. It’s a light week for the NZD as a whole as only trade balance is due out on Wednesday so we can expect to see USD carry it through the week, and markets look to play of technical levels. For me the support level at 0.6494 is the real sticking point for the NZDUSD and we need a solid break though and rejection of this level after a breakout to confirm a bearish trend is really starting for the NZDUSD. Certainly with the advent of another rate cut this year being a real prospect, we may see some strong moves lower, but at present that key level is important to watch for kiwi traders.
Lastly, the S&P 500 is moving strongly on the charts again and I am a little surprised about the nature of the movements which have so far been bullish. It’s been a common pattern of strong pull backs before bullish momentum picks up, and the resistance level at 2103 is a great candidate to be tested. For this week the focus will certainly be on the raft of US data, all of which be a tell tale sign of any movement by the FED in the December, something the markets are looking to bet against given the recent rhetoric from FED members.