Analysis written BY retail traders FOR retail traders
Important: Please be aware that the following expected figures are analysts estimates based upon the data available at the time this calendar was posted. As each data point draws nearer you should expect some fluctuation in these expectations and stay as up to date as you possibly can as to any renewed expectations immediately prior to the release of a data point.
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Monday 2nd Jan
8.55am – 9am – German, eurozone manufacturing PMI (December, final): forecast to rise to 55.5 and 54.9 from 54.3 and 53.7 respectively.
Tuesday 3rd Jan
1.45am – China Caixin manufacturing PMI (December): expected to fall to 50.4 from 50.9.
8.55am – German unemployment data (December): unemployment expected to fall by 6000, while the rate holds at 6%.
9.30am – UK manufacturing PMI (December): expected to fall to 53.1 from 53.4.
1pm – German inflation (December, preliminary): price growth expected to rise to 1.4% YoY from 0.8%.
3pm – US ISM manufacturing PMI (December): forecast to rise to 54.2 from 54.1.
Wednesday 4th Jan
9.30am – UK construction PMI (December): expected to rise to 53.1 from 52.8.
10am – eurozone inflation (December, flash): overall CPI expected to be 0.9%, from 0.6% in November, while core inflation remains steady at 0.8%.
7pm – Fed minutes: these minutes will cover the December meeting, at which the committee voted to increase rates. The minutes may shed more light on the decision and potentially provide further information on the projected three rate increases in 2017.
Thursday 5th Jan
1.45am – China Caixin services PMI (December): the private sector survey is expected to fall to 52.3 from 53.1.
9.30am – UK services PMI (December): this most important UK PMI reading is expected to show further strength, rising to 55.5 from 55.2.
1.15pm – US ADP payroll report (December): the private survey, released a day later due to the Monday holiday, is expected to see job growth of 177K from 216K a month earlier.
1.30pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 31 December): claims expected to fall to 263K from 265K.
3pm – US ISM non-manufacturing PMI (December): expected to hold at 57.2.
3.30pm – US EIA crude inventories (w/e 30 December): stockpiles, released a day later due to the Monday holiday, are expected to rise by 2000 barrels, from a rise of 614K a week earlier.
Friday 6th Jan
12.30am – Australia trade balance (November): previous figure was a deficit of A$1.54 billion.
10am – eurozone business confidence (December), retail sales (November): confidence expected to rise to 0.55 from 0.42, while retail sales rise 1.8% YoY from a 2.4% rise, and fall 0.4% MoM from a 1.1% rise.
1.30pm – US non-farm payrolls (December): payrolls are forecast to rise by 175K, from 178L in November, while average hourly earnings rise 0.3% from a 0.1% fall a month earlier. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.7% from 4.6%.
1.30pm – Canada unemployment data, trade balance (December): there are 29K jobs expected to have been created, from 10,700 a month earlier, while the unemployment rate remains at 6.8%.
3pm – Canada Ivey PMI (December, seasonally adjusted): forecast to fall to 55.1 from 56.8.
6pm – Baker Hughes rig count (w/e 6 January): watch for any increase here, as US drillers take advantage of higher prices to reactivate drilling rigs.
Source: Clifton FX
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