WEEK 03 AHEAD Economic calendar: Mon 16th to Fri 20th Jan 2017

Analysis written BY retail traders FOR retail traders

Important: Please be aware that the following expected figures are analysts estimates based upon the data available at the time this calendar was posted. As each data point draws nearer you should expect some fluctuation in these expectations and stay as up to date as you possibly can as to any renewed expectations immediately prior to the release of a data point. 


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Monday 16th

10am – eurozone trade balance (November): previous figure €20.1 billion.


Tuesday 17th

Time TBC: Prime Minister May to deliver Brexit speech.

9.30am – UK CPI (December): forecast to rise to 1.5% YoY and 0.4% MoM from 1.2% and 0.2% respectively. Core CPI forecast to rise to 1.6% from 1.4%

10am – German ZEW (January): economic sentiment expected to increase to 14.9 from 13.8.

1.30pm – US NY state mfg index (January): expected to fall to 7.4 from 9.

11.30pm – Australia Westpac consumer confidence (January): previous reading 97.3.


Wednesday 18th

9.30am – UK unemployment data: November unemployment rate forecast to rise to 4.9% from 4.8%, while December’s claimant count is expected to rise to 7300 from 2400. Meanwhile, average earnings (including bonuses) for November are forecast to rise by 2.6%, from an October rise of 2.5%.

10am – eurozone inflation (December, final): prices expected to rise 1.1% YoY, in line with previous estimate, while core price rise of 0.9% is also forecast to be unrevised.

1.30pm – US CPI (December): prices expected to rise 1.7% YoY and 0.2% MoM, in line with November, while core prices increase 2.1% YoY, also in line with November.

3pm – Bank of Canada interest rate decision: no change on rates expected, likely to remain at 0.5%.


Thursday 19th

12.30am – Australia employment data (December): unemployment rate expected to hold at 5.7%, while the number of jobs falls by 14,100, from 39,300 last month.

12.45pm – ECB rate decision (1.30pm press conference): after last month’s decision to extend the QE timeline while cutting the monthly purchase amount, no major changes are expected, but watch out for commentary around potential changes to inflation forecasts.

1.30pm – US housing starts & building permits (December), initial jobless claims (w/e 14 Jan), Philadelphia Fed index (January): building permits expected to increase to an annual rate of 1.22 million, while housing starts rise to an annual rate of 1.16 million. Initial jobless claims forecast to remain at 247,000, in line with the previous week. Philly Fed index expected to fall to 17.4 from 21.5.

4pm – EIA crude inventories (w/e 13 January): (moved back a day due to MLK holiday) stockpiles expected to fall by 400,000 barrels, after a 4 million barrel increase in the preceding week.


Friday 20th

2am – China retail sales, industrial production (December): sales forecast to rise 10.7% in December, down from 10.8% in November, while industrial production rises 6.1%, also lower than the November 6.2% reading.

9.30am – UK retail sales (December): expected to rise 6.4% YoY from 5.9% in November, while the MoM figure rises 1% from 0.2%.

1.30pm – Canada inflation data (December), retail sales (November): price growth expected to be 1.1% YoY, down from 1.2% a month earlier, while retail sales rise 0.1% MoM from an October bounce of 1%.

Source: Clifton FX

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