Analysis written BY retail traders FOR retail traders
Important: Please be aware that the following expected figures are analysts estimates based upon the data available at the time this calendar was posted. As each data point draws nearer you should expect some fluctuation in these expectations and stay as up to date as you possibly can as to any renewed expectations immediately prior to the release of a data point.
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WEEK 14 Economic calendar: Mon 3rd to Fri 7th April 2017
As it’s the first Friday of the month all eyes will be on the usual non-farm payrolls as well as the FOMC minutes release, both of which could provide significant volatility. One thing also to watch this week is the anticipated meeting between Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi. this is likely to be somewhat of an uncomfortable meeting and is likely to focus on trade as well as security issues relating to the North Korean actions recently and China’s action in the South China Sea.
However there are a host of major data releases in the upcoming week and below we provide a quick snapshot of these and what they mean:
Monday 3rd April
12:50 AM Japanese Tankan Manufacturing and Non-manufacturing indexes – While unlikely to be a significant market mover this is an important indicator of manufacturing and nonmanufacturing health in Japan. Anything above 0 shows an improving position and with recent inflation increases the Bank of Japan will be looking for further improvements.
2:30 AM Australian Retail Sales – previous 0.4%/forecast 0.3% – Forecast is for a drop in Retail Sales, and anything significantly below forecast could trigger dovish comments from the RBA.
9:30 AM UK Manufacturing PMI – previous 54.6/forecast 55.1 – Another important release from the UK, which has performed well since the referendum. We are expecting another uptick in manufacturing with 55.1 being a very healthy expansionary figure.
3 PM US ISM Manufacturing PMI – previous 57.7/forecast 57.2 – After something of a disappointing release last month all eyes will be on this data to boost confidence, whereas a weaker than expected release could start to signal concerns around an economic slowdown.
Tuesday 4th April
5:30 AM Australian interest rate decision and statement – Unlikely to be any significant change in monetary policy but all eyes will be on the statement to look for any signs of forward guidance. Expect references to any Chinese slowdown which would have a negative impact on the Australian economy.
9:30 AM UK Construction PMI – previous 52.5/forecast 52.5 – Not a significant market mover but is important to note alongside other UK economic indicators.
Tentative New Zealand GDT (Global Dairy Trade) Price Index – previous 1.7% – An important release for New Zealand as a significant dairy exporter. This can often create volatility for the New Zealand dollar. New Zealand are looking for sustained increases in prices to support its economy.
Wednesday 5th April
9:30 AM UK Services PMI – previous 53.3/forecast 53.5 – The UK economy is made up of approximately 70% services and therefore this is a very important release for the UK. After last month’s showering the lowest level of expansion in 6 months another decline could send warning signals.
1:15 PM US ADP Non-farm employment change – previous 298K/forecast 191K – Again not a market mover unless it significantly over or under performs. It is sometimes seen as the precursor for non-farm payrolls.
3 PM US ISM non-manufacturing PMI – previous 57.6/forecast 57.1 – We are looking for a small slowdown in expansion for nonmanufacturing in the US and 57.1 would still be a strong position. This release has been relatively stable for the past few months and therefore anything around expectation could be viewed as positive USD.
3:30 PM US Crude Oil Inventories – previous 0.9M increase – This is an important release for oil prices as an increase puts pressure on prices whereas a reduction supports prices. Longer term this is also a good indicator of how well the OPEC oil production freeze is performing.
7 PM US FOMC Meeting Minutes – After the committee voting to increase rates in March the markets will be looking for details of those discussions, what factors drove them to making that decision and any information surrounding inflation and inflation expectations. In particular the markets will be looking for any forward guidance relating to the June meeting where the futures market is currently pricing in a 58% chance of a further rate hike.
Thursday 6th April
No Major data expected
Friday 7th April
9:30 AM UK Manufacturing Production – previous -0.9%/forecast 0.3% – Important indication of manufacturing health in the UK. Last month we saw a significant drop and expectations are for a small bounce back this month.
1:30 PM US Average Hourly Earnings – previous 0.2%/forecast 0.2% – This is almost as important as non-farm payrolls itself as it has a direct relationship with inflation: The more earnings increase the more likely people are to spend. A secondary aspects to this is to determine how far away from full employment the US is, if close then this should provide additional upward pressure on salaries.
1:30 PM US Non-farm Payrolls – previous 235K/forecast 176K – Often the main event of the week and can create significant volatility, however, considering there was an interest rate increase last month only a significantly better than expected result is likely to have any major longer term impact. The markets will be watching for any indication of how far the US is away from full employment, a reduction could confirm this however an increase would suggest there is still some capacity.
3 PM Canadian Ivey PMI – previous 55.0/forecast 56.3 – An important indicator of economic health within the Canadian business environment. After 3 successive months of reduction we are looking for a slight rebound which would be positive for the Canadian dollar.
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