WEEK 16 Ahead – Forex Traders Calendar:
Mon 17th to Fri 21st April 2017
Expect geopolitics to take a major hold on the market this week.
We see a continued shift towards a risk off environment which will see money shift into the Yen, Gold and fixed income assets. We have rising tensions between the US and Russia, North Korea and the US antagonising each other with China being the voice of reason, can’t believe I’m writing that! We also have the French elections next weekend with Marie Le Pen getting a bit of a bounce in the polls following recent terrorist attacks in Europe, and with her promise of an EU referendum within 6 months of her taking power, that certainly could create significant concern for the Euro. It’s still a longshot that she would win in the 2nd round of voting, but her performance in the 1st round will be closely watched, and remember, it was always a longshot that Donald Trump would win in the US.
Monday 17th April
3 a.m. | CNY | GDP | Prior: 6.8% | Expected 6.8%
This is a major release and indicator of world economic health with China being the 2nd largest global economy. Expectations are that the economy grew at the same pace as previous although there are potential risks to the downside following recently reported slowdowns in retail sales and increasing imports.
3 a.m. | CNY | Industrial Production y/y | Prior: 6.3% | Expected 6.2%
Not as much of a market mover as GDP but nonetheless it is important for the same reasons as the above, and particularly for Australia and New Zealand as the largest exporters to China in terms of commodity outputs such as copper and iron.
Tuesday 18th April
2:30 a.m. | AUD | Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
This is an quite interesting release as following the decision to maintain existing interest rates last week policymakers indicated that some labor markets had softened and this could lead to risks. However, following Thursday’s employment report release it’s likely that any potential downside risk highlighted in the minutes have somewhat waned.
Tentative | NZD | GDT Price Index | Prior: 1.6% |
With New Zealand being one of the world’s biggest exporters of dairy products this is an important release and often creates short-term volatility. There is no forecast for this release a beat on the prior indicates increasing dairy prices, a lower number suggests reducing diary prices. Given that New Zealand is a major diary exporter this would have obvious consequences to their economy.
Wednesday 19th April
11:45 p.m. | NZD | CPI q/q | Prior: 0.4% | Expected 0.8%
The forecast for this release is a healthy 0.8% increase which would give a +2% year-on-year rate which would be in line with the RBNZ target range. While at the previous meeting, the bank kept the door open for further rate cuts should the CPI figure be in line with expectations or even beat them this would significantly reduce the likelihood of further easing and could be very bullish.
Thursday 20th April
1:30 p.m. | USD | Philly Fed Manufacturing Index | Prior: 32.8 | Expected 25.6
While not often a significant market mover following the disappointment of some of the releases last week for the US dollar this takes on some new significance. Manufacturing tends to be a good gauge of economic health and is often reacts first to improving or declining economic conditions, so this is a good leading indicator of sentiment for the US economy.
4:30 p.m. and 5:30 p.m. | GBP | BOE Gov Carney Speaks
While neither talks are specifically relevant to UK economic policy and therefore are not expected to have significant impact on the markets there is always a risk of volatility whenever the Governor of a central bank speaks.
Friday 21st April
9 a.m. | EUR | Flash Manufacturing | PMI Prior: 56.2 | Expected 56.1
The forecast suggests a small decline in March but still to be a healthy 56.1, where any figure above 50 shows an expanding picture. However, the ECB is still extremely dovish both in action through QE and rhetoric, and this is unlikely to change on the back of this release. Much of this week’s focus will be less on economic releases and far more on the upcoming French election.
9 a.m. | EUR | Flash Services PMI | Prior: 56.0 | Expected 56.0
The forecast is for a repeat of last month’s healthy 56.0, where again any figure above 50 shows an expanding picture. As above, the ECB is still extremely dovish both in action through QE and rhetoric, and this is unlikely to change on the back of this release. Much of this week’s focus will be less on economic releases and far more on the upcoming French election.
9.30 a.m. | GBP | Retail Sales m/m | Prior: 1.4% | Expected -0.3%
This is becoming more important release in the post-referendum world in the UK. A significant reduction in retail sales is expected and this is primarily driven by recent sentiment indices. Moving forward, retail sales are likely to play an important role in Bank of England policy, and consistently poor numbers could eliminate any ongoing speculation around monetary policy tightening (read interest rate increases) regardless of increasing inflation. The UK could be facing tough times ahead if we continue to see high Street sales and spending dropping but inflation rising; we could start to see discussions about stagflation where we see prices increase but growth decreasing.
1:30 p.m. | CAD | CPI m/m | Prior: 0.2% | Expected 0.4%
With continued optimism coming out of Canada this is an important release to see whether inflation maintains an upward trajectory.