WEEK 17 Ahead – Forex Traders Calendar:
Mon 24th to Fri 28th April 2017
By far the biggest event this week is the 1st round of the French Presidential election which will be held this Sunday, the 23rd.
Despite the 11 candidates, final polls continue to be very tight. The process is that the 1st round gets the candidates down to 2 who go into the final round on May 7, the winner of which will ultimately become the new French President. Melencon and Le Pen signal significant risks to the EU while Fillion and Macron are more likely to provide market confidence. The most likely outcome is Le Pen and Macron making it into the final round, but with the recent terrorist attacks, anything at this stage could happen. There is a potential for significant gaps on market open and, depending on the result, volatility across all EUR related asset classes.
Sunday 23rd April
All Day | EUR | French Presidential elections
Monday 24th April
9 a.m. | EUR | German Ifo Business Climate – Prior: 112.3 | Expected 112.4
With recent softer data coming out of Germany this is an important release as it indicates general economic health across the business sector. Forecasters are not expecting a significant shift from last month and the figure is currently at a three-year high so confidence is positive.
Tuesday 25th April
3 p.m. | USD | CB Consumer Confidence – Prior: 125.6 | Expected 123.7
While not a significant market mover this survey which includes 5000 households is a good indication of consumer sentiment and likely spending trends. With the figure running at extremely high levels consumer confidence is high.
Wednesday 26th April
2:30 a.m. | AUD | CPI q/q – Prior: 0.5% | Expected 0.6%
Recently the RBA have been quite cautious around their economic outlook with increasing concerns around the household sector and the labour market despite the significantly positive figures from 2 weeks ago. Significantly weaker than expected inflation figures could spark new speculation over further easing.
1: 30 p.m. | CAD | Core Retail Sales m/m – Prior: 1.7% | Expected (no forecast)
With last week’s CPI figures missing expectations concerns are once again on the horizon for the Canadian economy. A positive figure would be rather reassuring for the CAD whereas anything below the previous 1.7% could be seen as further risks heading into Q2.
Thursday 27th April
Tentative | JPY | Monetary Policy Statement/Outlook/Interest Rate – Prior: -0.1% | Expected -0.1%
Not anticipated to be a significant market mover bar any unexpected changes to monetary policy. Recent figures coming out from Japan suggest a slowly improving position and they are unlikely to instigate any significant changes which could destabilize any recovery. We could however see some political comments relating to the threats from North Korea.
12:45 p.m. | EUR | Minimum Bid Rate – Prior: 0% | Expected 0%
Unlikely to be any change in interest rate policy, all eyes will be on the following press conference.
1: 30 p.m. | EUR | ECB Press Conference
This could be a significantly volatile event and all eyes will be on the terminology used in the press conference. While Eurozone data has continued to improve with solid growth in employment and consumer spending, including last week’s PMI data mentioned in our weekly Wrap article, inflation continues to struggle. With the French elections still very much in everybody’s mind there will also be a reticence to add additional uncertainty into the mix and therefore Draghi is likely to acknowledge the improving position, continuing to talk of low inflation and avoid any forward guidance around QE (quantitative easing) tapering. While we are likely to see some kind of tapering towards the end of this year it’s unlikely that this will be discussed until the June meeting for the above reasons.
1: 30 p.m. | USD | Core Durable Goods Orders m/m – Prior: 0.5% | Expected 0.4%
This is an interesting release as it is never really a significant market mover and is often overlooked as a leading indicator. It looks at orders being placed for high-value longer life items by manufacturers, and therefore if improving it suggests that manufacturing output is likely to increase which is good for GDP.
Friday 28th April
9: 30 a.m. | GBP | GDP q/q – Prior: 0.6% | Expected 0.4%
While much of the UK data has been positive since the referendum we have seen a slowdown in certain areas recently and therefore there is an expectation of GDP to fall slightly. This is one of the big 3 in terms of economic releases and potentially will set the tone for the GBP going forward. A significant miss on this release would be GBP bearish a significant beat being GBP bullish. With inflation also on the rise if we see GDP growing faster than anticipated this will certainly begin to raise expectations of interest rate rises.
9 a.m. | EUR | Flash Services PMI – Prior: 56.0 | Expected 56.0
The forecast is for a repeat of last month’s healthy print, where any figure above 50 shows an expanding picture. However, the ECB is still extremely dovish both in action through QE and rhetoric, and this is unlikely to change on the back of this release. Much of this week’s focus will be less on economic releases and far more on the upcoming French election.
1: 30 p.m. | USD | Advanced GBP q/q – Prior: 2.1% | Expected 1.3%
This is the 1st of three readings of Q1 GDP data therefore often creates the biggest volatility, but is also released very early on in Q2 and is often revised later in the month. Much like the GBP there is evidence of slowdowns in consumer spending and therefore the expectation is for a significant drop compared to last month. A reading dramatically different from the expected could have a volatile impact on the USD.
1:30 p.m. | CAD | GDP m/m – Prior: 0.6% | Expected (no forecast)
Canada is unique in that it is the only country that reports GDP on a monthly basis and therefore the impact can be somewhat lessened in terms of volatility, but it still remains one of the big 3 in terms of economic importance.
In Other News
On April 29 the European Council are holding a special meeting with regards to Brexit. The rhetoric coming out of this meeting will be important and is likely to set the tone for negotiations once they start, although there will be no actual negotiations before the UK general election. The information coming out of this meeting could have significant impact on the GBP next week.