Analysis written BY retail traders FOR retail traders
Important: Please be aware that the following expected figures are analysts estimates based upon the data available at the time this calendar was posted. As each data point draws nearer you should expect some fluctuation in these expectations and stay as up to date as you possibly can as to any renewed expectations immediately prior to the release of a data point.
Before moving straight to the calendar we should address pretty much only thing that is on everybody’s mind that will ultimately drive the markets this week, the USA Presidential Elections.
The writers of House of Cards couldn’t have written a better series with intrigue, controversy, scandal and a fair share of comedy. The thing that has to be remembered is regardless of what pairs you trade they are all linked to the USD in some way shape or form, therefore there is no avoiding it. There is a very clear risk on/risk off nature to the elections with Trump being considered risk off because of the unknown and potentially extreme nature of a Trump presidency with Clinton being perceived as a risk on, not necessarily because she is a better candidate, she has her own skeletons, but because the world would probably breathe a sigh of relief as she is considered a known quantity and would be somewhat consistent in terms of previous policy from the last 8 years.
We are already seeing fear creep into the markets with the Vix index (CBOE Volatility Index) increasing last week to its highest level in 5 months at 22.5, the dollar index selling off, S&P 500 dropping as well as emerging market ETF’s falling.
Whether it is Trump or Clinton, a landslide or close victory, the markets are likely to be volatile this week both before and after the event. It has been a fascinating journey to this point and I for one will be quite sad to see it end, but regardless of the result be prepared for continued controversy and volatility for a while to come.
Monday 7th November
7 AM Eurozone German Factory Orders – previous 1% – forecast 0.2% – With Germany being the largest economy in the Eurozone this is always a good indicator of economic direction for the single currency. Following a significant increase last month forecast is for a more modest increase this month.
Tuesday 8th November
All Day – USA Presidential Elections – Keeping in mind the differing timezones involved we should start to see early declerations and exit polls from around 5am GMT and continue through the European and US trading sessions with things really hotting up at around midnight GMT when the polling stations start to close. There are many articles written addressing the UK timings of the event, one of which published by the Telegraph can be found HERE, and both SKY, the BBC and Bloomberg are covering the event in it’s entirety. YouTube and Twitter are also running live streams.
Tentative Chinese Trade Balance – previous 278 billion/forecast 366 billion – An important figure to watch as this often can set the tone for overall global growth with China being the largest growing major economy at present. Last month’s figures were weaker than expected so sustained weakness could increase global fear but recent PMI figures have been stronger than expected.
9:30 AM UK Manufacturing Production – previous 0.2%/forecast 0.5% – The UK economy continues to confound the experts by producing better numbers than expected following the referendum. This is another opportunity for the UK economy to do so with expectations for a better number than last month primarily down to the weakness in sterling.
Wednesday 9th November
1:30 AM Chinese CPI – previous 1.9%/forecast 2.1% – For the same reason as the Chinese Trade Balance this is important for the global outlook and even more so for the Antipodean currency region.
1:30 AM Chinese PPI – previous 0.1%/forecast 0.9% – As above
3:30 PM US crude oil inventories – previous 14.4M – After last week’s huge increase in stockpiles this will be an important number to watch as it directly affects oil prices. Another significant growth in stockpiles could lead to a further drop in price.
8 PM New Zealand RBNZ Rate and Policy Statements – previous 2%/forecast 1.75% – The market is anticipating a 0.25% cut in interest rates as New Zealand continues to struggle to generate inflationary pressure. Expect volatility around this event.
Thursday 10th November
1:30 PM US Initial Jobless Claims – previous 265K/forecast 267K – Expected relatively inline with expectations so unlikely to move the markets given the election.
Friday 11th November
3 PM US Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment – previous 87.2/forecast 87.4 – With a significant likelihood of an interest rate rise by the Fed in December all data releases between now and then are important. This looks at consumer sentiment and how confident consumers are around future economic conditions.
Source: Clifton FX
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