Analysis written BY retail traders FOR retail traders
Important: Please be aware that the following expected figures are analysts estimates based upon the data available at the time this calendar was posted. As each data point draws nearer you should expect some fluctuation in these expectations and stay as up to date as you possibly can as to any renewed expectations immediately prior to the release of a data point.
As the dust settles on a historic week last week we could continue to see volatility. Much will be driven by rhetoric and the appointment of key members of the US cabinet. We also have quite a few news events next week which could set the tone for trading, a selection of which is listed below:
Sunday 13th November
11:50 PM Japan Preliminary GDP – previous 0.2%/forecast 0.2% – This is the 1st and most volatile release in terms of Japanese GDP figures and will give an indication of how their unprecedented amount of stimulus is working.
Monday 14th November
2 AM China Industrial production – previous 6.1%/forecast 6.2% – Another opportunity to see how the Chinese economy is faring.
9:45 PM New Zealand retail sales – previous 2.3%/forecast 0.8% – After a surprisingly positive figure last month expectations are for a more modest increase.
9:45 PM New Zealand core retail sales – previous 2.6%/forecast 1.1% – Again a more modest increase expected this month, and is a very important indicator for inflation.
Tuesday 15th November
7 AM German preliminary GDP – previous 0.4%/forecast 0.3% – An important figure for the Eurozone with Germany being its largest economy.
9:30 AM GBP CPI – previous 1.0%/forecast 1.1% – A huge figure for the UK especially after recent sterling strength. The UK appears to be one of the most likely to see significant inflation at present.
9:30 AM GBP PPI – previous 0%/forecast 1.6% – Expectations are for a jump in PPI this month which is important as producer price increases filter through to consumers which in turn generates inflation.
9:30 AM GBP RPI – previous 2%/forecast 2.3% – Goes hand-in-hand with the above, if retail items are more expensive this also assists with driving up inflation.
10 AM Eurozone flash GDP – previous 0.3%/forecast 0.3% – Another opportunity to see how the Eurozone is doing with continued QE. This release could be quite volatile despite only being considered a Tier 2 news item.
10 AM German ZEW Economic Sentiment – previous 6.2/forecast 7.9 – An important indicator of how investors feel about the German economy.
10 AM GBP Inflation Report – This is where Bank of England governor Mark Carney gives testimony on the economic outlook for the UK. This will be watched with interest especially considering the recent court case and sterling strength.
1:30 PM US core retail sales – previous 0.5%/forecast 0.5% – An important release for the Fed as it approaches a possible interest rate hike in December.
1:30 PM US retail sales – previous 0.6%/forecast to 0.6% – As above only the Fed prefer core retail sales as an indicator and thus it is the core figure that is watched by traders.
Tentative New Zealand GDT price index – previous 11.4% – Very important figure for New Zealand as one of the world’s largest dairy trading nations.
Wednesday 16th November
9:30 AM GBP average earnings index – previous 2.3%/forecast 2.3% – An important release as it shows wage growth. With higher wage growth consumers feel richer and therefore spend more generating inflation.
1:30 PM Canadian manufacturing sales – previous 0.9%/forecast -0.2% – An important figure showing confidence in the manufacturing sector in Canada. Canada continues to struggle to see any real economic growth.
1:30 PM US PPI – previous 0.3%/forecast 0.3% – An indication of the price of producing items – if manufacturers pay more for their raw materials this in turn leads to consumers paying more for the finished products – and therefore is an important early indicator of potential inflation.
1:30 PM US core PPI – previous 0.2%/forecast 0.2% – As above only excluding food and energy items
3:30 PM US crude oil inventories – previous 2.4 M – After yet another increase last week coupled with record oil production numbers from OPEC last month a further positive reading could be significantly bearish for oil prices.
Thursday 17th November
9:30 AM GBP retail sales – previous 0%/forecast 0.5% – Looking for a boost this month in retail sales and is a good indicator of economic health and future inflation.
10 AM Eurozone final CPI – previous 0.4%/forecast 0.4% – Important to see if there is any revision on preliminary data releases.
1:30 PM US CPI – previous 0.3%/forecast 0.4% – Very important release and could have a significant impact on next month’s interest rate hike. Any figure under the expected level could give the Fred an opportunity to second-guess in December amid political certainty with the new president.
1:30 PM US core CPI -previous 0.1%/forecast 0.2% – As above and excluding food and energy. This is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation pressures.
1:30 PM US Philly Fed manufacturing index – previous 9.7/forecast 8.1 – An important indicator of business confidence throughout the Philadelphia region.
3 PM US Fed chair Yellen testifies – Possibly the biggest market moving news release this week. Janet Yellen will testify with immediate focus being on comments related to the December FOMC meeting. Commentary around 2017 outlook will also be pivotal along will any questions relating to the future of the Fed and her own future in light of recent elections. Donald Trump has previously been extremely critical of the Federal Reserve so it remains to be seen how that relationship will unfold.
Friday 18th November
1:30 PM Canadian core CPI – previous 0.2%/forecast 0.3% – Following last month weaker than expected release another disappointment could spark an interest rate cut in the December meeting.
1:30 PM Canadian CPI – previous 0.1%/forecast 0.2% – As above
Source: Clifton FX
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