Analysis written BY retail traders FOR retail traders
The November nonfarm payrolls report will likely be the highlight of the coming week as it will be the last before December’s FOMC meeting. There will be plenty of other major data for the US, while Japanese indicators will also attract some attention. The European calendar will be relatively quieter with flash inflation for the Eurozone being the more important release.
Important: Please be aware that the following expected figures are analysts estimates based upon the data available at the time this calendar was posted. As each data point draws nearer you should expect some fluctuation in these expectations and stay as up to date as you possibly can as to any renewed expectations immediately prior to the release of a data point.
2pm – ECB president Mario Draghi speaks: the European Central Bank chief is giving a speech to the European parliament in Brussels and he generally doesn’t hold back in giving his thoughts. Given his audience, Brexit, Donald Trump and the strength of the dollar could all be mentioned. And will he give any more hints about a possible extension of the ECB’s bond buying programme
11.30pm – Japan unemployment (October): forecast to stay at 3%.
10am – eurozone business confidence (November): sentiment expected to fall to 0.26 from 0.55.
1.30pm – German CPI (November): the annual inflation rate further picked up in October, hitting a two-year high of 0.8% or 0.7% using EU standards. With last year’s sharp falls in energy prices dropping out of the calculation, we could be in for further increases in inflation in coming months. Economists expect a further tick higher to 0.9% in November.
1.30pm – US Q3 GDP (second reading): economists expect the figure to be revised up to 3.0% from the first reading of 2.9%.
3pm – US Consumer Confidence (November): this will be a closely-watched figure in coming months for any signs of a Trump effect. This month, economists expect a reading of 100, up from 98.6 in October.
All day – OPEC meeting: will the group reach a deal to limit or cut supply to global markets awash with supply? Expectations are mixed after Saudi Arabia said it will not attend talks with non-OPEC producers.
8.55am – German unemployment (November): forecast to fall by 3000 from a 13,000 drop a month earlier.
10am – eurozone Consumer Price Index (November): we’re still a long way from the European Central Bank’s 2% target. But with last year’s steep fall in energy prices dropping out of the basket, we could see a tick-up in inflation in coming months.
1.15pm – US ADP employment report (November): 160K jobs expected to have been created in the month, from 147K last month.
1.30pm – Canadian GDP (Q3): forecast to rise by 1.5% QoQ from a 0.4% drop in Q2. Meanwhile, YoY figure expected to be 2.2% from -1.6%.
2.45pm – US Chicago PMI (November): forecast to rise to 51.8 from 50.6.
3pm – US pending home sales (October): expected to rise by 1% MoM from 1.5% in September.
3.30pm – US EIA crude figures (w/e 25 Nov): these will play second fiddle to the OPEC meeting, but the forecast is for a rise of 1.8 million barrels, from the 1.25 million drop a week earlier.
7pm – Fed Beige Book: with a December hike practically a certainty, this survey will not provide too much new information.
1am – China manufacturing PMI (November): economists expect the figure to stay almost unchanged at 51.0 from 51.2 in October. Anything above 50.0 signals growth.
9.30am – UK mfg PMI (November): forecast to fall to 53.8 from 54.3.
10am – eurozone unemployment (October): expected to remain at 10% MoM.
1.30pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 26 Nov): claims forecast to rise to 253K from 251K a week earlier.
3pm – US ISM manufacturing PMI (November): economists expect the figure to rise a touch to 52.0 from 51.9 in October.
9.30am – UK construction PMI (November): expected to rise to 52.8 from 52.6.
1.30pm – US non-farm payrolls (November): economists expect an increase of 180,000 jobs compared with the 161,000 posted last month. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 7.0%.
1.30pm – Canada employment data (November): 32,400 jobs expected to have been created, down from 43,900 a month earlier, while the unemployment rate drops to 6.9%.
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