Analysis written BY retail traders FOR retail traders
Important: Please be aware that the following expected figures are analysts estimates based upon the data available at the time this calendar was posted. As each data point draws nearer you should expect some fluctuation in these expectations and stay as up to date as you possibly can as to any renewed expectations immediately prior to the release of a data point.
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No tier one data expected
12.30am – Australia NAB business confidence (November): index expected to fall to 3 from 4.
2am – China industrial production, retail sales (November): industrial output forecast to fall to 5.9% from 6.1%, while retail sales hold steady at 10% YoY.
9.30am – UK CPI (November): CPI expected to rise to 1% YoY and 0.2% MoM, from 0.9% and 0.1% respectively. Meanwhile, core inflation expected to hit 1.4% from 1.2%.
10am – German ZEW (December): current conditions index expected to rise to 59.6 from 58.8, while the economic sentiment index is expected to rise to 15.1 from 13.8.
11.30pm – Australia Westpac consumer confidence (December): index forecast to drop to 101 from 101.3.
11.50pm – Japan Tankan manufacturing index (Q4): index of manufacturing activity expected to hold steady at six, as in Q3.
9.30am – UK employment data: unemployment rate for October is expected to rise to 4.9% from 4.8%, while the claimant count falls by 1500 from a 9800 rise in October. Average hourly earnings (including bonuses) forecast to rise by 2.1% in November, after a 2.3% rise in October.
10am – eurozone industrial production (October): expected to rise 0.8% MoM from a 0.8% drop in September, and rise 1.2% from 1.1%
1.30pm – US PPI, retail sales (November): PPI expected to rise by 0.1% MoM, while core PPI increases by 0.2% from a 0.2% decrease in October. Retail sales forecast to rise 0.5% MoM from 0.8%.
3.30pm – US EIA crude inventories (w/e 9th December): forecast to rise by 600,000 barrels from a 2.4 million barrel drop last week.
7pm – US Fed rate decision: the day is finally here, with the Fed expected to raise rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%. Watch for any change from this, plus commentary in the statement and press conference.
12.30am – Australia RBA meeting minutes, employment data (November): RBA minutes to help shed light on the outlook for the economy, while employment data shows the rate held steady at 5.6% while 10,000 jobs were created.
8am – 9am French, German, eurozone manufacturing and services PMI (December, flash): signs of improvement here should help provide strength in EUR/USD, with the German reading particularly important.
9.30am – UK retail sales (November): sales expected to rise 0.2% MoM and 6.2% YoY, from 1.9% and 7.4% respectively.
12pm – BoE policy decision: no change is expected, but the minutes of the meeting will be closely watched for any hints as to the future direction of policy.
1.30pm – US CPI (November), initial jobless claims (w/e 10 December): price growth expected to be 1.7% YoY and 0.2% MoM, from 1.6% and 0.4% respectively. Jobless claims expected to be 256,000, from 258,000 a week earlier.
2.45pm – US manufacturing PMI (December, flash): expected to fall to 53.9 from 54.1
10am – eurozone inflation data (November, final): CPI expected to rise to 0.6% YoY from a previous forecast of 0.5%, while MoM data holds at 0.2%. Core inflation expected to rise by 0.8%, in line with October.
1.30pm – US housing starts and building permits (November): building permits expected to fall to an annual rate of 1.237 million, while housing starts drop to 1.235 million.
Source: Clifton FX
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