Analysis written BY retail traders FOR retail traders
Important: Please be aware that the following expected figures are analysts estimates based upon the data available at the time this calendar was posted. As each data point draws nearer you should expect some fluctuation in these expectations and stay as up to date as you possibly can as to any renewed expectations immediately prior to the release of a data point.
Monday 10th October
No tier 1 economic data due.
Tuesday 11th October
10am German ZEW Economic Sentiment – Previous 0.5/forecast 4.2 – This is an important release for the Eurozone as it’s a leading indicator of economic health in Germany, the eurozone’s largest economy. Last month was mildly positive and expectations are for significant improvements this month.
10am Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment – previous 5.4/forecast 6.3 – As per the above, a good leading indicator of economic activity across the European Union.
Wednesday 12th October
7pm USD FOMC Minutes – Probably one of if not the most important release this week with the language closely watched for signs of whether interest rates will be increased. Currently the market expects a 90% hold in November and a 60% chance of a rate hike in December, the minutes may have a significant impact on this.
Thursday 13th October
4pm USD Crude Oil Inventories – previous -3.0 million barrels/forecast tentative – Closely watched by the market as the stocks held by commercial firms influences the demand for and consequently the price of fuel which feeds in to inflation statistics.
Friday 14th October
2:30am China CPI – Previous 1.3%/forecast 1.6% – After troublesome Chinese data earlier in the year August showed tentative evidence of recovery with both exports and imports. Another improvement in September would boost confidence in the short-term Chinese outlook and hopes for global growth.
2:30am China PPI – previous -0.8%/forecast -0.4% – Again for the reasons above a significant release which will be felt worldwide.
1:30pm USD Retail Sales – Previous -0.3%/forecast 0.6% – Previous readings have been quite weak, another disappointing reading would trigger more doubts around economic outlook while a robust reading would further bolster the case for interest rate rises.
1:30pm USD Core Retail Sales – Previous 0.1%/forecast 0.4% – As above but without car sales included and is considered the Federal Reserves preferred method for the measurement of economic activity.
1:30pm USD PPI – Previous 0.0%/forecast 0.2% – An early indication of inflationary pressures. Again looking for a positive figure to further strengthen the argument for tightening monetary policy.
6:30pm USD Fed Check Yellen speaks – While difficult to predict how the market reacts there is often volatility both ahead of and during Janet Yellen speeches. She is due to deliver a speech on macroeconomic research after the crisis in Boston so beware of potential market swings.
Source: Clifton FX
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