Analysis written BY retail traders FOR retail traders
Important: Please be aware that the following expected figures are analysts estimates based upon the data available at the time this calendar was posted. As each data point draws nearer you should expect some fluctuation in these expectations and stay as up to date as you possibly can as to any renewed expectations immediately prior to the release of a data point.
This week ahead is really the last week for the FOMC to spread word about the November policy meeting, due on Wed 2nd November, where the market currently has a 91% chance of an interest rate hike priced in.
Monday 24th October
8:30 AM Eurozone German Flash Manufacturing PMI – Previous 54.3/Forecast 54.3 – This is an important release for the Eurozone as it gives a good indication of the health of the manufacturing sector in the Eurozones largest economy.
8:30 AM Eurozone German Flash Services PMI – Previous 50.9/Forecast 51.9 – Again as per the above, an important release only this time focusing on the service sector.
9 AM Eurozone Flash Manufacturing PMI – Previous 52.6/Forecast 52.7 – For the same reason as the German version this is an important release but it is an indication collectively of all euro countries. Expectations are for a small improvement on last month.
9 AM Eurozone Flash Services PMI – Previous 52.2/Forecast 52.4 – A leading indicator of economic health for the services industry across all Eurozone nations.
8:30 PM Canada Bank of Canada Governor speaks
Tentative – Various FOMC members are scheduled to speak
9 AM Eurozone German IFo Business Climate – Previous 109.5/Forecast 109.6 – Important leading economic indicator of business confidence in Germany, the Eurozone’s largest economy.
3 PM US CB Consumer Confidence – Previous 104.1/Forecast 101.5 – This is an important index on consumer confidence
3:35 PM UK Bank of England governor speech
4:30 PM Eurozone ECB president speaks – Due to speak about monetary policy in Germany.
1:30 AM Australia CPI – Previous 0.4%/Forecast 0.5% – RBA governor recently made clear that the next set of inflation data would be crucial for November’s policy meeting.
3:30 PM US Crude oil inventories – Previous -5.2 million – Always an important indicator as it directly affects oil prices. Last week saw a 5.2M barrel reduction in the inventories which helped support an increase in oil prices.
9:30 AM UK preliminary Q3 GDP – Previous 0.7%/Forecast 0.3% – this first estimate is expected to show growth has slowed to 0.3% from 0.7% QoQ, while the YoY figure falls to 1.5% from 2.1%. However, these figures may be revised in the next two surveys.
1:30 PM US Durable Goods orders – Previous 0.1%/Forecast 0.1% – Data includes transportation items such as cars and other big-ticket items such as whitegoods and technology. A robust reading here could indicate an increase in consumer confidence via the order books of large manufacturers.
1:30 PM US Core Durable Goods orders – Previous -0.2%/Forecast 0.2% – As above but excluding transportation and larger purchase items.
12:30 AM Japan Consumer Prices – Previous -0.5%/Forecast -0.5% – An important indicator of potential future inflation, which has been significantly lacking in Japan.
6 AM Japan BOJ core CPI – Previous 0.4%/Forecast 0.3% – The Bank of Japan is still substantially short of reaching its inflation target of at least 2%. The Bank’s own reading of underlying inflation was at 0.4% last month, while national underlying inflation was at -0.5%.
1:30 PM US Advanced Q3 GDP – Previous 1.4% (Revised up from 1.2%)/Forecast 2.5% – Possibly the biggest news release this week. This will be an important figure for overall market sentiment, especially after generally disappointing figures for the first and second quarters.
Note: As we approach the US election, due Tues 8th November, we need to be mindful of higher than average volatility over the coming weeks.
Source: Clifton FX
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