Analysis written BY retail traders FOR retail traders
Important: Please be aware that the following expected figures are analysts estimates based upon the data available at the time this calendar was posted. As each data point draws nearer you should expect some fluctuation in these expectations and stay as up to date as you possibly can as to any renewed expectations immediately prior to the release of a data point.
We look forward to an interesting week ahead in the markets as there are lots of central bank announcements and releases.
Monday 31st October
7 AM Eurozone German Retail Sales – Previous -0.4%/forecast 0.2% – With Germany being the largest economy in the Eurozone this is always a good indicator of economic health for the single currency.
10 AM Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate – previous 0.4%/forecast 0.5% – Another opportunity to see whether the huge quantitative easing currently being undertaken by the ECB is having an effect.
10 AM Eurozone Preliminary Flash GDP – previous 0.3%/forecast a 0.3% – Expected flat, however a significant deviation from expectations could create significant volatility.
Tuesday 1st November
1 AM Chinese Manufacturing PMI – previous 50.4/forecast 50.3 – An important figure to watch as this often can set the tone for overall global growth with China being the largest growing major economy at present.
3:30 AM Australian Interest rate – Previous 1.5%/forecast 1.5% – The RBA are unlikely to change the interest rate based on recent releases. Commentary in the following statement on the overall economic outlook will be the most important factor.
9:30 AM UK manufacturing PMI – previous 55.4/forecast 54.6 – Anything above 50 is considered expansionary, it will be interesting to see if the UK continue its recent run of positive releases.
12:30 PM Canada GDP – previous 0.5%/forecast 0.2% – Canada, the only country that releases GDP figures on a monthly basis, surprised last month but the markets are expecting a more modest increase this month.
2 PM US ISM Manufacturing PMI – previous 51.5/forecast 51.8 – Probably not a significant market mover with expectations of an interest rate increase next month but a positive reading would add further confirmation.
4 PM Canada Bank of Canada Governor speaks – The governor will give his reaction to the GDP figures which could create volatility.
9:45 PM New Zealand unemployment Rate – Previous 5.1%/Forecast 5.1% – No change expected but will be an important indicator of possible moves next week for New Zealand interest rates.
Tentative New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index – Previous 1.4% – An important release for New Zealand as a significant exporter of dairy products. Last month saw an increase of 1.4%.
Tentative Bank of Japan Policy Rate and Statement – previous -0.1%/forecast -0.1% – All eyes will be on the inflation outlook and the expected timeframe for meeting the Japanese inflation target of 2%. Expectations are that policy will remain unchanged at this meeting.
Wednesday 2nd November
2 AM New Zealand Inflation Expectations – previous 1.7% – No forecasted figure as of the time of writing but with the RBNZ policy statement due next week this could set the tone.
9:30 AM UK Construction PMI – previous 52.3/forecast 51.9 – Another figure that people will be watching to look for signs of a post-EU referendum slump in the UK economy.
12:15 PM US ADP Non-Farm Employment change – previous 154K/forecast 166K – Often not a significant market mover unless significantly different from expectations but is a good prelude to where the all-important non-farm payrolls on Friday may come in at.
2:30 PM US crude oil inventories – previous -0.6 M – Somewhat of a surprising drawdown on the inventories last week. This is always an important figure to watch as it directly affects oil prices.
6 PM US Federal Funds Rate and Statement – previous less than 0.5%/forecast less than 0.5% – The main event this week with futures suggesting a 90% chance of rates being unchanged at this meeting. The statement will be the most important aspect to see whether it gives any hints as to December actions.
Thursday 3rd November
9:30 AM UK Services PMI – previous 52.6/forecast 52.5 – Again more closely watched statistics from the UK since the EU referendum. Figures continue to surprise to the upside, but can they continue to do so ?
12 PM UK Bank of England Inflation Report, Monetary Policy Summary and Interest Rate Decision – previous 0.25%/forecast 0.25% – Nicknamed super Thursday because of the amount of data released at the same time by the Bank of England, this is likely to create volatility. With the drop in sterling, which in itself is an easing policy, it will be interesting to see whether the Bank of England gives any significant forward guidance. There is unlikely to be a change in the interest rate. There are also significant rumours that Bank of England governor Carney could soon be stepping down and will no doubt face questions relating to this and his relationship with the UK government.
2 PM US ISM Nonmanufacturing PMI – previous 57.1/forecast 56.2 – The figure was strong last month and expectations are for another strong showing this month which will support speculation of an interest rate hike in December.
Friday 14th October
12:30 AM Australia RBA Monetary Policy Statement – The 2nd issued statement from the RBA governor could be relatively hawkish considering recent releases.
12:30 AM Australia retail sales – previous 0.4%/forecast 0.4% – An important economic indicator relating to inflationary pressures.
12:30 PM Canadian Unemployment Rate – previous 7.0%/forecast 7.0% – Expected to remain unchanged from last month.
12:30 PM US Average Hourly Earnings – previous 0.2%/forecast 0.3% – Expected to increase slightly and is an important figure for the Fed when looking at the overall health of the economy.
12:30 PM US Unemployment Rate – previous 5%/forecast 4.9% – After an unexpected rise last month this print is expected to fall back to 4.9% this month, which is considered close to full employment by the Fed.
12:30 PM US non-farm payrolls – previous 156K/forecast 175K – This is the last US employment report before the December rates meeting and will trigger a significant amount of volatility. If, as expected rates remain unchanged on Wednesday this will have important implications for the December meeting. A solid report would keep the federal reserve on track for a December hike, so anything over 150 K should be considered positive.
Other Notable Market Events
The US election, due on 8th November, could see increasing levels of volatility. Over the weekend we have seen the FBI reopen investigations into the Hillary Clinton email scandal which could damage her campaign and could be seen as helping Donald Trump move closer to the White House. The polls are currently swinging back and forth between both candidates and markets are likely to react accordingly as Trump is generally seen as a risk off candidate with Clinton risk on.
OPEC Oil Production Talks
Over the weekend negotiations between the major oil producing companies ended in a stalemate which threatens recent talks of an international deal to reduce oil production. It would appear that the major sticking points revolve around Iran, still looking to increase production as it recovers from U.S.-led sanctions, and Iraq, who are keen to produce as much as possible to fund ongoing battles with Isis. The fact that an agreement wasn’t reached could see oil prices drop and create an environment of possible volatility.
Source: Clifton FX
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